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Tyler Atlas breaks down the fantasy football impact of rookie wide receivers selected in the 2022 NFL Draft (Round 2 Picks). Which WRs are risers or fallers?
Each year we see a handful of incoming rookie WRs finish as a WR2 or better in fantasy football. While the best rookies are typically those who are drafted in the first round (Odell Beckham Jr., Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase), there are also numerous recent examples of Day 2 and 3 picks who also had great rookie seasons (A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Amon-Ra St. Brown).
In this article, I’ll just be covering a few of the WRs that were drafted in Round 2 of the 2022 NFL Draft.
To read my previous article about the WRs drafted in Round 1 (Drake London, Treylon Burks, and more) you can check it out here.
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Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson (Pick #34)
Green Bay Packers’ second-round draft pick Christian Watson looks to be stepping into a highly advantageous position, as the team is facing 248 vacated targets heading into next season. The Packers recently let both Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling walk away in trade packages and free agency, meaning that the team’s depth chart now consists of Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, and Randall Cobb. There is a wide-open path for Christian Watson to immediately step into the role as Aaron Rodgers’ favorite WR. However, rookie wide receivers historically do not bode well in Green Bay.
Since Rodgers became the Packers’ starter in 2008, the Packers have drafted four different WRs in the second round… Jordy Nelson (#36, 2008), Randall Cobb (#64, 2011), Davante Adams (#53, 2014), and now most recently, Christian Watson (#34, 2022). Each of these previous receivers became outstanding talents throughout their long careers, but surprisingly none were able to perform as a rookie. Of this group, Adams had the most productive rookie season, posting a measly stat line of 66-38-446-3, which was good for a ~WR70-80 finish.
Clearly, Aaron Rodgers does not trust incoming rookies to handle the majority of the team’s target share, and much prefers throwing to veterans that whom he has already built a rapport with. While I still believe he is more talented than a 29-year-old Watkins and 31-year-old Cobb, it seems likely that we see Christian Watson finish his rookie season with fewer targets than both Aaron Jones and Allen Lazard, who are both great values at their current ADPs.
New York Giants: Wan’Dale Robinson (Pick #43)
Wan’Dale Robinson, who was drafted much earlier than many expected, landed on a low-upside New York Giants squad that already has a talented group of WRs at their disposal, including Kadarius Toney, and Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton. Firstly, Shepard suffered an Achilles tear in mid-December, and will likely not return to play for most of the 2022 season. Next, there have been reports over the past few weeks that Slayton has been running with the third team in mandatory minicamp drills, meaning he could be a potential cut candidate before the season even begins. This leaves us with Kadarius Toney, who was drafted 20th overall by the Giants last year, and Kenny Golladay, who also signed with the Giants last year on a 4-year $72M contract, including $40M guaranteed. While these draft picks and free agency signings were made by the previous regime, their talent cannot go unnoticed.
Of all WRs with 50+ targets in 2021, Kadarius Toney finished #1 in targets-per-route-run (TPRR), ahead of Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, etc. Toney also finished #6 in yards-per-route-run (YPRR), tied with Justin Jefferson, and behind only Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, and Deonte Harris. On top of all these metrics, Toney somehow put up a 13-10-189 stat line with Mike Glennon throwing him the ball in Week 5. Kadarius Toney performed as an elite talent last season, and he should take another step forward to become the Giants' top receiver in 2022. If he stays healthy, Toney could command a 25+% target share. Furthermore, Kenny Golladay saw a drop in his target share last year, at 16.6%, after performing as a 20%+ target share receiver in the previous three seasons. Heading into 2022, I expect Golladay’s target share to be ~20%. So, with all this talent already at the position, why did the Giants draft another WR in the early-second round?
Before transferring to Kentucky, Wan’Dale Robinson played two years at Nebraska, where 60% of his touches came at RB. Then, in his breakout 2021 season, he had over 100 receptions for 1300 receiving yards, plus another 100 yards on the ground. Robinson finished his 3-year college career with 691 total rushing yards. With the recent emergence of dual-threat players such as Deebo Samuel and Cordarelle Patterson, teams are going out of their way to draft players who they believe fit this specific role in their offense. For the New York Giants, that dual-threat prospect was Wan’Dale Robinson. While Robinson’s target share likely sits around 10-15% as a rookie, he may earn enough rush attempts to become fantasy relevant in 2022. The team has a plan to keep him involved and get the ball in their playmakers' hands.
Kansas City Chiefs: Skyy Moore (Pick #54)
Skyy Moore was one of the most polarizing prospects in this draft class, putting up over 800 yards as a freshman at Western Michigan, plus nearly 1300 yards in his final year. In 2021, Moore ranked #2 in the SEC in both receptions and receiving yards, and #10 in receiving touchdowns. Clearly, Skyy Moore possesses the talent to see immediate success in the NFL, and he now steps into a wide-open Kansas City Chiefs WR room, facing 340 vacated targets from Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson. Heading into 2022, their depth chart includes names like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Of course, star TE Travis Kelce will command the most targets, but as we’ve seen with Tyreek over the past few years, there is a major opportunity alongside Kelce as Patrick Mahomes’ main deep-threat target.
I expect to see Skyy Moore immediately compete for the role as the Chiefs’ go-to deep threat, similar to what we’ve seen in the past with Tyreek. Moore’s main competition for this role is Hardman or MVS, but neither has been able to surpass 13% of their team’s target share during any season of either of their careers. On the other hand, JuJu, who ran a 4.54 at his combine, will play an entirely different role in this offense from Moore (4.41), Hardman (4.33), and MVS (4.37). There is an opportunity for an elite-level talent like Moore to take over the Chiefs’ receiving game and become their main deep-threat target.
While I expect him to get out to a slow start, as most rookies do, Skyy Moore could be one of the best rookie WRs to draft in fantasy football in 2022, as he faces a clear path towards immediate success in this high-powered offense. Furthermore, Moore could be a league-winner come time for fantasy playoffs, as he looks to face up against extremely poor secondaries in the Texans and Seahawks in Weeks 15 & 16, followed by a shootout game in Week 17 against the Broncos. As long as he can win the deep-threat job over Hardman and MVS, which I expect to happen, the Skyy is the limit!
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