RADIO
Rookie WR usage rates and fantasy football dynasty values heading into Week 6 of the 2017 NFL season. Charlie K. breaks down rookie risers for dynasty leagues.
This column features a weekly look at rookie performances from a dynasty fantasy football perspective. This week I'll look at a few wide receivers who've gotten a lot of usage so far.
I'll find other rookies from past seasons that have produced at a similar per-game pace, and see what stands out. Keep in mind that we're only five games into the season, so these comps could change. Still, five games are almost a third of fantasy season, and I think it can serve as a good milestone. We'll check back in later in the season to see which players have improved or fallen off the pace.
Most of the stats in the following tables are self-explanatory; I've included expected points as a way to give some context. It gives you a sense of how valuable the player's workload is and, by comparing it to PPR points per game, you can get a sense of whether or not the player is over or underperforming their expectations.
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Rookie Usage Rates
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
| PLAYER | SEAS | AGE | DRAFT | GAMES | EX.PTS. | TRGS | REC | YDS | TDS | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 2017 | 24 | 69 | 5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 46 | 0.4 | 10.4 |
| DeVante Parker | 2015 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 61.8 | 0.4 | 11.7 |
| John Brown | 2014 | 24 | 91 | 16 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3 | 43.5 | 0.3 | 9.2 |
| Terrance Williams | 2013 | 24 | 74 | 15 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 49.1 | 0.3 | 9.9 |
| Ty Hilton | 2012 | 23 | 92 | 15 | 9.6 | 6 | 3.3 | 57.4 | 0.5 | 12.1 |
| Denarius Moore | 2011 | 23 | 148 | 13 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 47.5 | 0.4 | 10.5 |
Cooper Kupp's most similar rookies, on a per-game basis, are quite good. I'm a little hesitant about the DeVante Parker comparison because Parker was both much younger and drafted much earlier, but the on-field results have been analogous. John Brown has been a very good fantasy asset when healthy, and TY Hilton has been a flat-out stud for most of his career. Denarius Moore fell off quickly, but averaged double-digit PPR points per game over his first three years in the league.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT)
| PLAYER | SEAS | AGE | DRAFT | GAMES | EX.PTS. | TRGS | REC | YDS | TDS | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juju Smith-Schuster | 2017 | 21 | 62 | 4 | 8.5 | 5 | 3 | 40 | 0.5 | 10 |
| Robert Woods | 2013 | 21 | 41 | 14 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 41.9 | 0.2 | 8.4 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2012 | 22 | 45 | 10 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 36.7 | 0.3 | 7.9 |
| Titus Young | 2011 | 22 | 44 | 16 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 3 | 37.9 | 0.4 | 9.1 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 2011 | 22 | 79 | 4 | 7.6 | 5 | 3.2 | 40.8 | 0 | 7.3 |
| Dez Bryant | 2010 | 22 | 24 | 12 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 46.8 | 0.5 | 11.4 |
Smith-Schuster is also pacing for some really interesting comps. Leonard Hankerson never panned out, but Titus Young was a very intriguing talent before his career went off the rails. Robert Woods has had situational utility as a spot starter throughout his career, and Alshon Jeffery and Dez Bryant have both been top fantasy wide receivers in multiple seasons. He looks like a firm hold in dynasty.
Trent Taylor (WR, SF)
| PLAYER | SEAS | AGE | DRAFT | GAMES | EX.PTS. | TRGS | REC | YDS | TDS | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Taylor | 2017 | 23 | 177 | 5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 19.8 | 0.2 | 5.6 |
| Rashad Greene | 2015 | 23 | 139 | 9 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 10.3 | 0.2 | 4.5 |
| Marvin Jones | 2012 | 22 | 166 | 8 | 6.4 | 4 | 2.2 | 25.1 | 0.1 | 6.1 |
| Juron Criner | 2012 | 23 | 168 | 8 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 2 | 18.9 | 0.1 | 4.6 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2011 | 23 | 153 | 12 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 26.2 | 0.1 | 5.9 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2010 | 23 | 22 | 10 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 28.3 | 0.2 | 6.2 |
Taylor has garnered some attention because of his usage so far, and the lack of major competition around him. Despite that, his comparables aren't that exciting. Demaryius Thomas, of course, has been a multi-year stud. and Marvin Jones has been a useful fantasy asset, but neither Greene, Criner, nor Kerley has been useful, outside of a brief stretch for Kerley.
Zay Jones (WR, BUF)
| PLAYER | SEAS | AGE | DRAFT | GAMES | EX.PTS. | TRGS | REC | YDS | TDS | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 2017 | 22 | 37 | 5 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1 | 13.2 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2015 | 22 | 29 | 11 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 20.5 | 0.1 | 4.4 |
| Devin Smith | 2015 | 23 | 37 | 7 | 6.2 | 4 | 1.3 | 16.4 | 0.1 | 3.8 |
| Markus Wheaton | 2013 | 22 | 79 | 5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 12.8 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Jon Baldwin | 2011 | 22 | 26 | 11 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 23.1 | 0.1 | 4.8 |
| Golden Tate | 2010 | 22 | 60 | 11 | 6 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 20.6 | 0 | 4 |
Yikes. I've been a strong advocate of Jones since before the NFL draft. He's been on the field and gotten plenty of usage, but has really struggled to produce, and that's reflected in his comps. Golden Tate -- eventually -- became a very good fantasy asset, and Wheaton has had a few occasions of usefulness. But Dorsett, Smith, and Baldwin can all fairly be called busts.
Takeaways
Based on the career trajectories of similarly performing rookies, the value of Kupp and Smith-Schuster should be on the rise. Both are definite holds if you have them and -- even though you might pay full price -- are worthy acquisition targets. If your dynasty team isn't contending this year, try and trade someone with more current production but less long-term potential.
Trent Taylor doesn't do much for me one way or the other. He probably deserves a roster spot in very deep dynasty leagues (say, 30 roster spots or more), but in shallower leagues, it doesn't look like you'll miss much if you leave him on the waiver wire.
As for Zay Jones, I'm torn. I still believe in his pedigree and potential, so I'm holding where I have him. On the other hand, even though his price is coming down a bit, I'm not looking to acquire him anywhere either. The early results are discouraging though, and warrant a close eye over the rest of the season.
