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John Flanigan analyzes MLB rookies as potential 2022 fantasy baseball sleepers. These are hitters who surged late in their rookie campaign.
Each year in baseball, there’s always a handful of rookies who finally receive their call to the show. That was again the case this past season, as we saw more really impressive young talent take the league by storm.
From the top prospects to the late-bloomers, so many youngsters took full advantage of the playing time in front of them. With the season coming down to an end, these guys continued to grind it out and shined for their respective teams.
While some of these hot stretches will prove to be just that, others have the makings of legit breakouts. Here are three potential 2022 sleepers who ended their rookie campaign on a high note.
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Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
Not just September, but last season as a whole was a breakout year for the 25-year old backstop. In his first full big-league campaign, Stephenson finished sixth in National League Rookie of the Year voting.
He appeared in 132 games and posted a 111 wRC+, .797 OPS, 2.0 fWAR, 20 doubles, 10 home runs, and 45 RBI. The youngster had a knack for the big moment, recording a 123 OPS+ and .822 OPS in high leverage situations.
Stephenson didn’t just produce with the counting stats, he also showed some very impressive plate discipline. He finished third amongst rookies with a .366 on-base percentage and posted a 10.2% walk rate. Additionally, he finished 11th with just 75 strikeouts on the year and both his chase and whiff rates finished above the 80th percentile.
With Tucker Barnhart being traded to the Tigers earlier this offseason, the Reds seem to be sold on Stephenson being their starter behind the plate. With his upside and guaranteed playing time, Stephenson has all the makings of a sleeper this season.
Frank Schwindel, Chicago Cubs
Perhaps one of the biggest surprises of the second half of the 2022 season was the emergence of 29-year old rookie Frank Schwindel. After being claimed on waivers, the New Jersey native received his shot with the Cubs and produced in a small sample size.
Schwindel appeared in 56 games over the last two months of the season but played well enough to finish tied for sixth in NL ROY voting. He also took home NL Rookie of the Month honors for both September and August. Over that 56 game span, Schwindel hit .342 with a 165 OPS+, 1.002 OPS, 19 doubles, 13 homers, and 40 RBI. He also struck out at just a 15.8% rate and produced a 6.2% walk rate, which is right on track with his minor league numbers.
Speaking of his minor league numbers, Schwindel actually has a pretty strong track record. He’s hit 20+ homers and 30+ doubles in four of his eight minor league seasons and has a career .799 OPS. He also had a strong minor league campaign this past season, hitting .317 with a .992 OPS and 16 home runs in 45 games with Triple-A Las Vegas.
With Anthony Rizzo hitting free agency, Schwindel could be looking at another solidified spot to begin the season. The fact that he could have the opportunity to play every day and hit near the top of the Cubs order makes him a decent sleeper option.
Bobby Dalbec, Boston Red Sox
It was a tale of two seasons for Red Sox slugger Bobby Dalbec in his first full big-league campaign. In the first half of the year, he struggled to the tune of a .673 OPS and struck out 95 times. In the second half, Dalbec settled in and looked more like the power bat the Red Sox expected. Over 61 games, he posted a .344 OBP, .955 OPS, 11 doubles, and 15 home runs.
While Dalbec still struck out 61 times in as many games, he was able to cut his strikeout rate down 5.5%. He also increased his walk rate to 8.2% in the second half, which certainly helped boost that on-base percentage. There’s still more work to be done, but the second-half surge was a nice development for the youngster. Overall, he finished the year posting a 105 OPS+ and .792 OPS, while hitting 21 doubles and 25 home runs.
With Dalbec’s upside, he could be a potential steal at his current ADP of around 254. Dalbec may never be a reliable contributor in the batting average department, but he has 30+ homer pop and should drive in plenty of runs hitting in that loaded Red Sox lineup.
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