Evaluating MLB Rookie Performances - Week 6

August 23, 2020

Rookies and prospects who have recently been called up to the Major Leagues. Andrew Ericksen evaluates the most relevant rookies for Week 6 of the 2020 fantasy baseball season.

It’s been a dream week for prospect watchers and dynasty owners who have been holding onto some of the recently called-up rookies for the past few years. Essentially every day this past week, we got news of a Top-100 prospect getting the call, something you’ll never see in a normal 162-game season.

For those of you with your frustrations and grievances against this year’s shortened campaign (yours truly, included), hopefully the past week’s excitement has helped you come around on the bizarre 2020 season a bit.

The Detroit Tigers were the clear center of attention in this week’s prospect bonanza, with their three call-ups, primarily star pitching prospect Casey Mize. I covered their debuts in an article earlier this week focused exclusively on the Tigers’ trio of prospects, so for this week’s edition of the recent call-up overview, I’ll be featuring the non-Tiger prospects who warrant your attention.

Dylan Carlson (OF, STL)

St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson, the organization’s top prospect, has gotten off to a rough start to his MLB career. Through his first nine games, Carlson had just one extra-base hit, a double, and was 4-for-31 overall with no RBI. He’s been primarily hitting in the bottom-third of the lineup, but has earned a few shots in the two-spot. He’s certainly going to need to come around quickly in order to warrant more starts near the top.

The 21-year-old Carlson did a little bit of everything in his minor league career, which is what led to his high prospect ranking. Last year, over 126 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, Carlson slashed .292/.372/.542 with 26 home runs, 95 runs and 20 stolen bases.

He has the makings of a future elite leadoff hitter, someone who could be a 30-30 threat for a number of seasons throughout his twenties.

However, this year, his outlook is more of a question. The Cardinals are built to compete this season and if Carlson doesn’t turn things around quickly, he’s either going to remain at the bottom of the lineup - which of course greatly lowers his fantasy upside - or he’s going to be sent back to the team’s alternate site.

He’s someone worth taking a shot on in deep redraft leagues if you have an open bench spot and are looking for someone with high upside. In more shallow redraft leagues, he can remain on waivers.

Dynasty owners, don’t fret over the slow start. If the Carlson owner in your league is hitting the panic button, go and get him.

Joey Bart (C, SF)

With San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey opting out of the 2020 season, it paved a more open path to playing time for one of the organization’s top prospects and he has finally made his highly-anticipated arrival.

Joey Bart was the second overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft. That same year, he went on to win the Johnny Bench Award, given to the top catcher in college baseball, after a standout season at Georgia Tech.

Bart has shown fantastic contact-hitting abilities as well as elite power potential over the past few years in the minors. He hit .278 with 16 home runs and 48 RBI in just 79 games at High-A and Double-A last year.

In his MLB debut on Thursday, Bart hit sixth in the order and went 1-for-4 with a double. He should be in line to start regularly for the team going forward. Chadwick Tromp and Tyler Heineman had been splitting catcher duties for the team prior to Bart’s call-up, but both have hit under .200 this year and Heineman was optioned to the team’s alternate site when Bart got the call.

Bart should be added in all deep leagues and is worthy of consideration in shallow leagues as well for owners in need of catcher help.

Luis Garcia (SS, WAS)

With Starlin Castro (wrist) likely out for the rest of the regular season with a broken wrist, the Washington Nationals called up 20-year-old shortstop Luis Garcia a lot quicker than many of us thought.

Garcia made a lot of headlines for being the first player born in the 2000s to hit a home run in the major leagues.

We have our first player born in the 2000s to homer, as Luis García goes yard pic.twitter.com/sL1WN66up2

— Starting 9 (@Starting9) August 18, 2020

Overall, his first week in the big leagues has been a resounding success. Through his first four games, he went 6-for-17 with four RBI and three runs. He started at second base and hit sixth in the order in each of his first four games.

Garcia struggled a decent amount last season at Double-A, which wasn’t too big of a surprise given the fact that he was just 19 years old at the time. He hit only four home runs and had an OPS of just .617 over 129 games in 2019. Those uninspiring numbers made his recent call-up all the more surprising.

If Garcia doesn’t have second base eligibility in your league, he will soon. And that’s where you’re most likely to get value out of him due to the depth of high-end hitters at shortstop.

He’s worth adding in all deep redraft leagues and NL-only leagues, but if he starts to struggle don’t be too attached to him.

For owners of Garcia in dynasty leagues, it’s certainly inspiring to see the youngster contribute in the majors already and this recent stretch surely increases his value, putting to rest any concerns of his disappointing 2019 output.

Dane Dunning (SP, CWS)

On the other end of Casey Mize’s MLB debut this past week was another top pitching prospect, Chicago White Sox pitcher Dane Dunning. While Mize certainly had the bulk of the attention in the game, Dunning definitely held his own in the battle of MLB debuts.

Dunning went 4 1/3 innings this past Wednesday, allowing five hits, one walk and three earned runs, while striking out seven. He had two extremely dominant pitches in the game. His four-seamer, which he led with and threw 41.1% of the time, induced a whiff rate of 50%, while his slider, thrown 28.8% of the time, had a whiff rate of 53.8% and a put-away percentage of 55.6%. He also mixed in an effective sinker as well as a curveball and a changeup.

Dunning missed the entirety of the 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, which makes it all the more surprising he was able to step in for his MLB debut given the bizarre course of the 2020 season. In his last competitive action, pitching in Double-A and High-A in 2018, Dunning made 15 starts and had a 2.71 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and averaged 10.4 K/9.

Dunning was sent back to the team’s alternate site the day after his debut, but fantasy owners shouldn’t be alarmed by this. The team has two days off next week and they are slated to go with a four-man rotation until Dunning is needed to step in again, likely the following week.

Dynasty owners should be jumping on Dunning right away if he’s available. In redraft leagues, it’s a bit more complicated. For deep, daily lock leagues, he’s someone worth adding once we get an announcement regarding his next start. He has fantastic strikeout potential and with the way the White Sox are hitting lately, he should have decent win potential as well.

Brendan Rodgers (SS, COL)

Colorado Rockies shortstop Brendan Rodgers, the third overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft, was called up this past week for his second trip to the majors. Rodgers played in 25 games last season before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. He struggled over those 25 games, slashing just .224/.272/.250 with only two extra-base hits (both doubles) and 27 strikeouts.

Rodgers became one of the top prospects in all of baseball after a standout 2017 campaign when he slashed .336/.373/.567 and hit 18 home runs over just 89 games split between High-A and Double-A. He was just 20 years old at the time.

Now, fresh off his 24^th birthday earlier this month, Rodgers is certainly under a good amount of pressure to start delivering in the big leagues. In his first start of the year this past Thursday, Rodgers played second base and hit seventh in the lineup, going 0-for-5 with two strikeouts in the game.

Playing time is certainly a big question for Rodgers. With David Dahl (back) placed on the Injured List, Garrett Hampson should see more time in the outfield, opening up opportunities at second base. However, the team also has Ryan McMahon getting starts at second as well as Chris Owings.

Rodgers needs to start producing quickly in order to attain regular playing time. If he does, then he’s someone worth adding in all deep redraft leagues as his best case scenario is an extremely productive hitter in the league’s best hitting environment. For now, however, he can remain on the waiver wire.

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