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Andrew Ericksen dives into three of the Detroit Tigers top prospects who were recently called up to determine their viability in redraft and dynasty leagues as rookies in 2020 fantasy baseball.
This past week has been the most eventful period for the Detroit Tigers organization for quite some time. Ever since being swept out of the first round of the 2014 playoffs by a hobbled Baltimore Orioles team, there’s been a lingering cloud of dread over the franchise, with fans wondering when the team’s rebuild would finally start to materialize.
Through a series of trades and high draft picks, the next generation of Tigers baseball is finally starting to look like an actual thing rather than just an idea. And this week, we finally got a look at three of the potential faces of this next generation, donning actual Tigers uniforms rather than those of their minor league affiliates.
In this article, we’ll take a look at how the team’s newcomers faired in their first MLB appearances and how fantasy owners in both season-long and dynasty leagues should feel about them going forward.
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Casey Mize
No doubt the banner child for the up-and-coming Tigers, Casey Mize made his MLB debut this Wednesday, an event that Tigers fans had been looking forward to ever since the top prospect was taken first overall in the 2018 MLB Draft.
Mize has done nothing but amp up expectations for his big league career since that 2018 draft. In his first start at Double-A Erie in 2019, Mize threw a no-hitter on just 98 pitches. Splitting his time at Double- and High-A in 2019, Mize went 8-3 over 21 starts, posting a 2.55 ERA and .942 WHIP with 8.7 K/9.
Despite the fact that Mize only went 4 1/3 innings in his MLB debut on Wednesday and allowed seven hits and three earned runs, there was certainly a lot to like from his outing.
In both his college career and his minor league career, Mize was exceptional at limiting walks. In his sophomore year at Auburn University, he struck out 109 batters while surrendering just nine walks. In his big league debut, Mize didn’t succumb to the pressure and change his ways. He didn’t give up a single walk and threw 49 of his 73 pitches for strikes.
He also showed some impressive put-away abilities on Wednesday, striking out seven of the 20 batters he faced.
Mize featured four different pitches in his debut, a fastball, slider, curveball, and splitter. While his low-to-mid 90s fastball and dynamic slider are his typical leading pitches, it was certainly the splitter that stole headlines in his debut.
Of the ten splitters Mize threw, he generated five swinging strikes. Only one ball was put in play and it went for an out.
He used the nasty splitter to record his first career strikeout on Yoan Moncada:
Mize was pulled in the fifth inning of his start on Wednesday after a shaky start to the inning, allowing a leadoff double to Zack Collins followed by a pair of singles that each scored a run. His only real blemish before that inning was a solo home run by Edwin Encarnacion in the second.
Because of Mize’s strong track record of limiting walks, he should be able to keep his pitch count low enough going forward that he’ll be able to go six innings or deeper in any start where he remains in control. That’s something notably tough to come by amongst rookie pitchers. Nate Pearson is yet to go deeper than five innings in a start, Brady Singer’s lengthiest start across five outings has been 5 2/3 and it took Jesus Luzardo four starts to make it to the end of the sixth inning for the first time.
Mize is currently owned in about 50% of fantasy leagues. That’s a number that absolutely needs to go up. While he won’t come close to hitting his future upside this season, he’s still going be a great source of strikeouts and should be able to limit runs as well. The shortened season and the fact that his call up came about a month into it should favor him going forward as he won’t be on a season-long innings count, just more of a game-to-game pitch limit that should be somewhere around 90.
In dynasty leagues, Mize owners should love what they saw from him on Wednesday. The fact that the Tigers finally pulled the trigger on calling him up is a big relief and should ensure that he’s set for a solid full year in 2021 that should see a lot of strikeouts and significant help in ratios. You should only consider trading him if you’re getting a massive return that includes a young pitcher with similar upside.
Tarik Skubal
A day before Mize became the center of attention for the baseball world, 23-year-old Tarik Skubal made his own MLB debut for the Tigers. The results, unfortunately, weren’t quite as inspiring as Mize’s. Skubal went just two innings, allowing seven hits, a walk, and four earned runs while striking out just one batter.
Skubal sky-rocketed up the Tigers’ prospect rankings the past two years after being a ninth-round draft pick in 2018.
Like Mize, Skubal split his 2019 campaign at Double- and High-A, but as impressive as Mize’s numbers were over the year, Skubal’s might have been even better. Over 122.2 innings last year, Skubal posted a 2.42 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with a whopping 179 strikeouts and 37 walks. That strikeout clip is good for a gaudy K/9 rate of 13.1.
Skubal leads with a mid-90s four-seamer, which he threw 55.8% of the time in his debut. It wasn’t a particularly effective day for the pitch on Tuesday as it generated a whiff rate of just 14.3% without a single put away. His slider, however, showed some real promise. He threw the pitch just nine times, but it led to his only strikeout and averaged 38.9 inches of vertical drop, nearly four inches more than league average. He also has a changeup and curveball that he regularly works into his arsenal.
Skubal is owned in just about 10% of fantasy leagues right now. It certainly makes sense that fantasy owners are skeptical to trust him as he doesn’t have the esteemed pedigree of Mize and he has a horrendous Tigers offense supporting him. Keep an eye on him going forward and if he shows he can go deeper into games and generate some more strikeouts as he did in the minors, he’s worth taking a flyer on in deep leagues.
In dynasty leagues, owners might be a bit wary of the fact that Skubal’s ascent into the top prospect rankings happened so quickly and seemingly out of nowhere. However, the minor league numbers should trump any concerns of that nature. Like Mize, because Skubal got his first shot this week, he now becomes essentially a sure thing for a full season as a big-league starter next year as long as he stays healthy and continues to progress. Dynasty owners should hold onto him regardless of how the rest of this strange, shortened season develops. If the Skubal owner in your league makes him available in exchange for more short-term help, jump on the opportunity.
Isaac Paredes
Before either Mize or Skubal took the field for the Tigers this week, third baseman Isaac Paredes made his MLB debut on Monday. He started each of his first three games in the big leagues, going just 1-for-9 with two RBI and a run.
Those two RBI both came on his first major league hit in his debut:
The 21-year-old Paredes showed exceptional plate discipline in the minors. Last year over 127 games at Double-A, he struck out just 61 times and drew 57 walks, good for a K/BB ratio of 1.07. That strong K/BB ratio certainly continued through his first three MLB games as he drew two walks to pair with his two strikeouts.
At this point, Paredes doesn’t seem destined to excel in any one particular stat, but he showed some overall statistical balance and versatility in the minors. During his stint at Double-A last year, he slashed .282/.368/.416 with 13 home runs and five stolen bases.
Paredes entered the season as the Tigers’ sixth overall prospect, one spot behind Skubal. Owned in about 1% of fantasy leagues right now, he’s someone who is very unlikely to contribute much for fantasy purposes this season. He hit eighth in the Tigers lineup in his MLB debut, then hit ninth in the next two games, a tough spot to do damage from in an uninspiring Tigers order.
For dynasty leagues, he’s a bit of a deep pull. If your league has 200 or fewer players kept each season, he’s hard to justify rostering. The upside of Paredes is likely a solid contact hitter with minimal strikeouts who can provide around 15 to 20 home runs over the course of a season. There’s certainly some value to that in deep rotisserie and head-to-head categories leagues, but you can wait for him to get there before you add him to your roster.
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