RADIO
The NFL Draft is just a couple of weeks away and there is already plenty of speculation as to where players may end up. If you log on to fantasy Twitter anytime soon there are sure to be a ton of hot takes about which prospects are better than others, who is overrated and so on and so forth. Then there are also arguments between people who like to “scout” players and grind film and those who take a more analytical approach.
The truth is, there is no one right way to learn and value a prospect. That is why in this article I will focus both on a scouting report on these prospects, while also taking a look at what the numbers show. Taking a look at players through both scopes is a fair way to get a good idea about a player – because lets face it – many are just learning about most of these players.
The last and potentially most important part in evaluating a prospect is out of our hands completely. Draft capital and landing spot greatly matter, especially in redraft leagues. You can love a prospect but if he lands on a team with proven starters ahead of him, well his fantasy value takes a big hit. And while every year there are late-round breakouts, the truth is draft capital greatly matters and teams are just more inclined to give immediate chances to players drafted early rather than late. For now, all we can do is learn as much as possible about these prospects to help us get ready for dynasty leagues, rookie drafts and of course, redraft!
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Top Quarterbacks Prospects - NFL Draft
Malik Willis, Liberty
Scouting Report: Willis is the only QB in this class that completely jumps off the screen when you watch him play. He has elite speed and mobility to be the next Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson when it comes to running. He also possesses a cannon of an arm and has the ability to beat teams downfield and outside with his arm strength. The negatives are he can often become a one-read QB and has to work on his touch and accuracy, especially on shorter throws. He also tends to tuck and run when he scrambles and would have to work on keeping his eyes downfield when getting out of the pocket. Lastly, at times he tries to do it all, but that could be a product of playing for Liberty and having to do it all most of the time. The high comp that gets thrown around is Josh Allen, who had similar traits coming out. The floor is a Jalen Hurts type QB, but the upside is being the next elite dual-threat QB.
What the Numbers Say: Willis threw for 2,250 and 2,857 in his two years as a starter at Liberty, throwing for 20 and 27 TDs. He threw 18 interceptions in those two seasons. Of course, much of his damage came from his legs as he ran for 944 yards and 14 TDs in 2020, before going for 878 and 13 last season. Willis led all QBs in big-time throws at 11 percent – that was the highest of any QB since Josh Allen in 2016 (10.6 percent). He had a 60.1 completion percentage, but his adjusted completion percent which takes out throw aways jumps up to 68.1 percent. He did so while averaging 12 air yards per throw with 61 percent of his passing yards coming through the air. Willis can operate on play action, but only got to do so on 35 percent of his college plays last year.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
Scouting Report: Pickett has a strong arm and can work well through his progressions. He is able to properly place his inside throws and has a quick release, which is a big plus at the NFL level. He is a competitor who is a better athlete than he gets credit for, but he tends to use his mobility to scramble and find time to throw and will not add a ton of fantasy value with his legs. The knock on him, outside the fact that he would have the smallest hands among NFL QBs, is that he pretty much just had one big year in college. It came as a fifth-year senior at 23 years old, which is always concerning for an NFL prospect. He struggles at times on outside throws and can be rattled by pressure. While his legs can be a plus, too often will he scramble out of a clean pocket – which can be a recipe for disaster at the NFL level.
What the Numbers Say: Pickett threw for 4,319 yards and 42 touchdowns with just seven interceptions as a fifth-year senior in 2021. His previous high was 3,098 yards and 13 touchdowns… so it is somewhat worrisome buying into an age-23 breakout after a career of mediocrity. He rushed for a career-high 241 yards this past season and had five rushing touchdowns, with eight the year prior. Only 5.1 percent of his throws were deemed a big-time throw. His 76.7 percent adjusted completion percentage was top five in 2021 (64.9 completion percent). He averaged 10.2 air yards per throw and 58.6 percent of his passing yards came through the air. His offense used play-action pass on just 21 percent of his plays in 2021.
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
Scouting Report: Ridder is the most seasoned of this year's early-round QBs. Ridder was a four-year starter who made a nice jump as a senior. He has a strong arm and can live in the intermediate area of the field, as well as break out the long ball when he has too. He has speed as well and can add some value with his legs, but he is far from the runner that Willis is. The seasoning has allowed him to learn to use his eyes to get through his reads while also manipulating defenses. The negatives are that his accuracy can just elude him at random times and he can overthrow simple passes. His long ball is a bit flat which makes it harder for receivers to track and while he has speed, he is more of a straight-line runner. He is the most day one NFL ready of any QB, but lacks the upside of others. He can be a solid QB2 for fantasy purposes if he falls in the right situation.
What the Numbers Say: Ridder posted career highs in passing yards (3,334) and touchdowns (30) as a senior. His previous highs came as a freshman (2,445 yards and 20 TDs). He only ran for 355 yards and six scores as a senior. That was a career-low in rushing yards as he topped 580 in his other three seasons. He rushed for at least five touchdowns every year in college. He posted a 73.2 adjusted completion percent (63.6 completion percent) and averaged 10.8 air yards per throw. He had a big-time throw on 6.5 percent of his attempts and 61.3 percent of his passing yards came through the air. He got to operate out of play action passes on just 25 percent of his plays.
Sam Howell, North Carolina
Scouting Report: Howell is a dual-threat QB who can throw his size (6’1, 225 pounds) around in the run game. He can both use his mobility to scramble and extend the play as a passer or to tuck and run and gain yards with his legs. He is also accurate as a passer. The knock is that he has decent arm strength and can be slow going through his progressions. Another knock on Howell is that his production fell off in his final season at UNC. That could be blamed on him losing his supporting cast, but Howell also deserves some of the blame there. He has upside to become more but would be merely a low-end QB2 initially in the NFL.
What the Numbers Say: Howell put up career lows in 2021 throwing for just 3,056 yards and 24 touchdowns. He topped 3,600 yards in each of his prior two seasons and threw for 38 and 30 TDs. While he fell off as a passer he gained as a runner, rushing for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns. He had a big-time throw on 6.1 percent of his attempts. While his completion percentage looks gross at 59.2 percent, his adjusted climbs to 71 percent. Only 54 percent of his passing yards came through the air. Howell operated on play-action passes on 48.5 percent of plays, the fourth most among draft-eligible QBs.
Matt Corral, Ole Miss
Scouting Report: Corral’s accuracy stands out when you watch him, especially on shorter throws. He has strong pocket awareness but excelled on play-action passes and on RPOs, but some say he was too dependent on them in college. He is a good runner and has the ability to make tacklers miss, but he can be reckless and take too many hits. That is okay in college, but not in the NFL. He improved his ball security his final year in college but that will be something to watch at the next level. As accurate as he is on the short stuff, he struggles on the long ball at times, but that could be more so due to his lack of upper-level arm strength.
What the Numbers Say: Corral threw for 3,349 yards a year after throwing for 3,337, so you can say he is consistent. However, his touchdowns did drop from 29 to 20, although it came with a big decrease in interceptions as well (14 to five). He averaged 9.1 air yards per throw after averaging 10.1 the year prior. His rushing numbers improved yearly, topping off at 614 yards and 11 touchdowns this past season. He topped 500 rushing yards in two straight years. Only 4.3 percent of his attempts were deemed big-time throws. He did complete 65.1 percent of his passes, while the adjusted rate climbs to 75.4 percent, which was eighth amongst draft-eligible QBs. Only 40.5 percent of his passing yards came through the air, meaning almost 60 percent of his yards came after the catch. He led the NCAA with 60.4 percent of plays on play action.
Deeper Quarterback Prospects - NFL Draft
Carson Strong could have potentially been another candidate to go towards the top of the draft if it was not for his health concerns. He was a strong arm and is not afraid to throw the ball into tight windows. He was inconsistent at times with his accuracy in college, but his knee injuries could partly be to blame. Teams seem to be very worried about his knees, but Strong could still hear his name called on day two of the draft. He would not be very fantasy relevant early on but could work his way up the rankings if given an opportunity. His 75.1 percent adjusted completion percentage was top 10 among draft-eligible QBs in 2021.
Kaleb Eleby out of Western Michigan has awesome accuracy and placement of the ball. While he is not a great athlete he is able to move around the pocket and can throw on the run. He projects as a day two pick and can be a strong backup, who could get a chance to start.
Skylar Thompson has above-average arm strength. He is a good athlete who can be a threat in the run game and can operate the RPO. While he is a strong athlete, he can become too reliant on that and his mechanics can be sloppy at times, which affects his accuracy. Thompson remains a work in progress, but there is untapped upside here for sure.
This series will continue to break down the key skill positions heading into the NFL Draft!
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio
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