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Which rookies didn't live up to fantasy football expectations during their first year in the NFL? Andrew Ball analyzes the biggest busts of the 2024 NFL Draft class.
We saw plenty of fresh faces in the NFL in 2024! The draft class was greatly hyped up, especially on offense. Let's be honest, embracing the unknown in fantasy can be a fascinating endeavor!
We (the fantasy community) tend to overhype rookies. We don't want to miss out on the next generational talent. But for every Ja'Marr Chase, there's a Kadarius Toney. For every Jonathan Taylor, there's a Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
It's no different for the 2024 NFL Draft class. Some rookies broke records. Others flopped in their debuts. These are the stories of the top ten rookie flips in 2025!
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
10. Caleb Williams, QB - Chicago Bears
Drafted: 1st round, 1st overall
Caleb Williams wasn't a complete disaster as the top quarterback selected in the 2024 draft. Will he wind up like Blake Bortles, Mitchell Trubisky, or Marcus Mariota? That seems a step too far. But, boy, are there signs of concern heading into 2025.
Williams was sacked 68 times. That's the most for any quarterback since David Carr hit the ground on 68 occasions in 2005 (his fourth NFL season). Yes, the offensive line is a massive issue and one that general manager Ryan Poles will spend the offseason reworking.
But Williams' time in the pocket (2.4 seconds) was comparable to the league average. While it's on the higher end, his pressure rate (23.5%) was less than Sam Darnold, Dak Prescott, and Bryce Young, among others.
The original Shane Waldron-led (then Thomas Brown-led) offense put Chicago at a quick disadvantage. D'Andre Swift's runs up the gut and quick screen passes didn't lead to much scoring. Just six of Williams' 20 passing touchdowns came in the first half. He averaged 97.8 passing yards before halftime. His fantasy football production increased when the game's outcome was out of reach.
Williams also struggled with accuracy, even without pressure. A 65.4 clean-pocket completion percentage ranked 31st among qualified quarterbacks. Before the season, pundits claimed he had the best receiving corps for any rookie quarterback in NFL history (Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and Rome Odunze). It didn't matter.
Then, he makes plays like this. Only a handful of NFL quarterbacks can make this throw.
WHAT A PLAY 🤯
📺: #MINvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/TwqIJEneVJ
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) November 24, 2024
The flashes are there. Williams needs to tighten his internal clock, which will help with accuracy woes. His play under new coach Ben Johnson's system will tell us a lot about Williams' career trajectory.
9. Jonathon Brooks, RB - Carolina Panthers
Drafted: 2nd round, 46th overall
It's not right to judge Jonathon Brooks' rookie season, given it ended early after another ACL tear. However, it is fair to look at the long-term impacts of his injury.
Not a great scene as Panthers promising RB Jonathon Brooks just went down with a non-contact injury. He limped off of the field. Hoping for the best pic.twitter.com/Ml2YwDDd9V
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulliNFL) December 8, 2024
The recovery length of his initial injury opened the door for incumbent Chuba Hubbard. Brooks, who tore his ACL in November of 2023, was projected to miss two to four games to begin his rookie season. Instead, he wasn't activated until Week 12. By then, Hubbard emerged as one of the best value picks in fantasy football and Carolina awarded him a four-year, $33M contract extension.
With a second ACL tear (suffered in early December), Brooks will probably not be back on the football field until 2026. Some dynasty managers selected the former Texas Longhorn in the first round of rookie drafts. Nine carries over (likely) two seasons isn't what was envisioned. Brooks was supposed to take control of the Panthers' backfield.
8. Trey Benson, RB - Arizona Cardinals
Drafted: 3rd round, 66th overall
For the first time in his entire NFL career, James Conner did not miss a start during the fantasy football season (he sat out Week 18). Gambling on Trey Benson to pick up a start or two would have given us great odds. He was also inactive for the final game. The rookie started one game (a Week 2 contest that Conner was also credited with a start).
Benson showed flashes in his limited opportunities. He averaged 4.62 yards per carry and just once did his game average dip below four YPC.
Early in the season, Trey Benson was regularly bouncing around in the backfield looking for a big play.
Yesterday, he remembered he's a big dude and just started taking defenders head-on in the gaps. Much more decisive running, and a lot of yards after contact. pic.twitter.com/itWFSakNAL
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) November 12, 2024
Like in Carolina, the veteran running back earned an extension in November. Conner inked a two-year deal to keep him in the desert through the 2026 season. While Benson was found on the waiver wire in redraft formats, there's still optimism for his long-term, dynasty outlook. Conner will be 30 years old when next season kicks off and, again, has a lengthy injury history.
7. Malachi Corley, WR - New York Jets
Drafted: 3rd round, 65th overall
The New York Jets entered Week 1 with Garrett Wilson, an aging Mike Williams coming off an ACL tear, Allen Lazard (a healthy scratch at the end of 2023), Xavier Gipson, and rookie Malachi Corley on the wide receiver depth chart. Corley showed potential on his college tape and had dynasty fantasy managers curious about his potential. The Jets liked him enough to select him with the first pick in the third round.
Corley didn't have much competition to leapfrog the depth chart. Instead, he was woefully uninvolved for the first half of the season. Then, the Jets added Davante Adams. When he finally got the chance, he fumbled it away.
Malachi Corley dropping the ball before breaking the plane for a touchdown is a good summary of 2024 New York Jets football pic.twitter.com/1Jb8y8fKd1
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) November 1, 2024
Corley's rookie season won't be remembered for anything else. He totaled 83 offensive snaps, three receptions, two carries, and 42 yards from scrimmage.
Wilson, Adams, and Lazard are under contract next season. If Rodgers isn't in town anymore, the latter two may not be either. That's Corley's glimmer of hope.
6. Ben Sinnott, TE - Washington Commanders
Drafted: 2nd round, 53rd overall
Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers busted a decades-long trend of rookie tight ends underperforming in their debut campaigns. Even some of the best of the millennium (Mark Andrews, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten) weren't big names in year one. Ben Sinnott's teammate Zach Ertz only caught 36 passes in his first professional season.
Fantasy managers who drafted Sinnott in dynasty (or deep redraft) leagues still expected more than five receptions in 18 games. Overcoming Kliff Kingsbury's love for Ertz was a tough ask as long as the veteran remained healthy. But, remaining behind John Bates on the team's depth chart for the whole season? That's a red flag.
Sinnott was widely viewed as the second-best tight end prospect in the class (behind Bowers) and that's how the draft panned out. The six tight ends drafted after (Tip Reiman, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Theo Johnson, Erick All Jr., A.J. Barner, and Cade Stover) recorded more receptions than Sinnott.
Ertz turned 34 during the season and won't have many more high-level seasons left in his career. However, Sinnott will need to show more flashes in year two for dynasty managers to have faith in the Kansas State product.
5. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR - Arizona Cardinals
Drafted: 1st round, 4th overall
Marvin Harrison Jr. wasn't a bust in the typical sense. 62 receptions, 885 yards, and eight touchdowns is a respectable start to an NFL career. But his draft capital and the production of receivers selected after him gave fantasy managers an uneasy feeling.
Malik Nabers (sixth overall), Brian Thomas Jr. (23rd overall), and Ladd McConkey (34th overall) thrived as the go-to options on their respective offenses. Add tight end Brock Bowers (13th overall) and there were four rookie pass catchers to surpass 1,000 receiving yards.
For the first time in NFL history, four rookies have all reached 1,000 receiving yards.
Brock Bowers
Brian Thomas, Jr.
Malik Nabers
Ladd McConkeyThe 2024 draft class is special pic.twitter.com/6HSb3oHhtO
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 29, 2024
Those rookies would have made great early second-round selections in fantasy drafts. Instead, that was Harrison's ADP. The WR8 off the board finished as the WR30 (and he didn't miss a game).
Nobody is giving up on Harrison yet and the consensus is that the Arizona coaching staff can be more creative in getting him the football. That responsibility falls on Kyler Murray as well.
4. Adonai Mitchell, WR - Indianapolis Colts
Drafted: 2nd round, 52nd overall
The jury is still out on Adonai Mitchell because much of the offensive blame is placed on quarterback Anthony Richardson.
Richardson's completion percentages (on all levels and situations) were well below the league average. Joe Flacco was a marginal improvement in his six starts. Mitchell can't secure uncatchable passes. The rookie saw a 50% catchable target rate and only dropped two passes. Mitchell was targeted on 27% of his routes run. That's a fantastic number, especially for a rookie.
Nickel and Dimes. 🪙
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/meejsLzWyS
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) December 22, 2024
However, he wasn't on the field often. Michael Pittman Jr. remained the clear WR1. Josh Downs occupied the slot. That was expected.
Mitchell failed to supplant Alec Pierce. That's why the Colts drafted in the second round. He won't be worth the draft capital if the coaches don't trust him on the field.
3. Blake Corum, RB - Los Angeles Rams
Drafted: 3rd round, 83rd overall
Over the summer, Blake Corum was the second rookie running back off redraft boards. Remember the whole 'Kyren Williams is a punt returner' debacle? That, coupled with Sean McVay's history of quickly moving on from starting running backs, led some to believe that Corum would have a significant role in Los Angeles.
The former Wolverine saw eight carries (tied for a career-high) in a blowout Week 2 loss. In the other three games in September, Corum didn't register an offensive snap. Not only was he not taking Williams' job, he wasn't putting a dent into his workload.
And Corum never found his footing. At best (on two occasions), Corum got half of Williams's opportunities. The latter didn't miss a meaningful game and will turn 25 just ahead of next season. There aren't any questions about who commands the backfield. Corum is simply a handcuff.
2. Jermaine Burton, WR - Cincinnati Bengals
Drafted: 3rd round, 80th overall
The Cincinnati Bengals looked past Jermaine Burton's off-the-field concerns during the draft, selecting the former Alabama and Georgia receiver in the third round. There was uncertainty about Tee Higgins' future in Ohio. Ja'Marr Chase sat out of training camp while seeking a contract extension. Burton's path to playing time was wide open.
Burton didn't take advantage of the opportunity and actively hindered his chances of becoming a quality NFL receiver. With Higgins inactive in Week 9, the Cincinnati coaching staff constructed a game plan involving their rookie. He missed Saturday's walkthrough and was subsequently made a healthy scratch.
#Bengals WR Jermaine Burton admitted he let his teammates and himself down by his actions last week .. when asked where he was Saturday said, “just gotta better.” Used same answer to a handful of other questions
— Richard Skinner (@Local12Skinny) November 5, 2024
Burton was also left home for Cincinnati's must-win Week 18 contest in Pittsburgh. He was allegedly involved in a domestic dispute at the end of the calendar year.
On the field, Burton totaled four catches for 107 yards. If Higgins remains with the team, Burton may not even have a roster spot in August.
1. Ja'Lynn Polk, WR - New England Patriots
Drafted: 2nd round, 37th overall
New England Patriots wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk tops the list.
The second-round pick out of the University of Washington had one of the worst first seasons in recent memory, given his draft capital (think Terrace Marshall Jr. or J.J. Arcega-Whiteside-type levels). It makes it even worse (for New England fans at least) knowing the team traded down with the Chargers, who selected Ladd McConkey.
Polk had 70 fewer catches than the receiver he'll forever be connected with. Similar to McConkey, Polk didn't have much competition for playing time. Tight end Hunter Henry led the team with 674 receiving yards. DeMario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, Austin Hooper, and Kendrick Bourne rounded out the top five. If Polk is any good, he'd be on the football field.
New head coach Mike Vrabel discussed the importance of adding weapons around soon-to-be second-year quarterback Drake Maye. Polk may not be a part of those plans.
“Put great people around him. … Drake is gonna be his own person, but I’m gonna give him some things that I feel like are necessary to help us win football games. We have to be a very efficient passing football team."
Mike Vrabel on developing @DrakeMaye2 🤝 pic.twitter.com/N45Q5JuRh2
— NESN (@NESN) January 13, 2025
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