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Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user chooses the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
RIVAL Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win MLB DFS games. There are no large-field tournaments filled with sharks where you have to get lucky to place. At RIVAL Fantasy, you're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Check here for the updated rules and scoring.
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
This is free money if someone's willing to take the Darvish side against you. Kelly has been on fire lately and gets to face the Tigers tonight, while Darvish hasn't been in good form and will be pitching in Coors Field tonight. You do the math on this one.
Christian Yelich vs. Orlando Arcia
I like Yelich and the Brewers tonight against Medina's 8.19 ERA (6.51 xERA), as you'll read in my Yelich 'over' pick below. Arcia has had a few big games recently, but he's not near the hitter Yelich is, and he has a much tougher matchup against Josiah Gray (3.09 ERA, 4.48 xERA) tonight.
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Gerrit Cole (OVER), Yu Darvish (UNDER), Cristian Javier (OVER)
Cole's FPTS line is set at 13.9, a drastic misprice relative to his median projection. The perennial All-Star's 25.9% strikeout rate is a sharp decline from his 29.9% career average, but he holds a 7-0 record and a 2.82 ERA through 13 starts. He's averaging 21.1 FPTS per game and has exceeded 20 FPTS in three of his last four outings. Vegas isn't expecting much out of the Red Sox tonight as they currently hold a low 3.8-run implied total, meaning Cole also has a great shot at securing the win bonus.
Darvish, meanwhile, has the second-highest FPTS total on the board today. That's not too far from his 17.4 FPTS per game average, but he's pitching in Coors Field tonight. The Rockies hold the third-highest OPS (.823), third-highest wOBA (.355), and fifth-lowest strikeout rate (19.8%) at their home field against right-handed pitchers. Darvish posted a massive game against the Cubs last outing but failed to exceed in his three previous starts. I'm smashing the under here.
Javier, much like Cole, is highly mispriced. His line is set at 9.17 FPTS, but he's averaging 20.23 FPTS per game this season. He's finished over his line for tonight in ten of 12 starts. Cleveland doesn't strike out a ton, but they sneakily hold one of the worst offenses in the league against right-handed pitching. They rank 29th in OPS (.651), 30th in ISO (.116), and 29th in wOBA (.286) in the split this season.
Christian Yelich (OVER), Bo Bichette (UNDER), Amed Rosario (UNDER)
The Brewers have the top implied total on the board outside Coors Field at a lofty 5.9 runs. Yelich is the best hitter on the team, and that's enough reason for me to back the over on him tonight against the freefalling Luis Medina. Medina holds an unsightly 8.19 ERA (6.51 xERA), 1.62 WHIP, and a bottom-four percentile .540 xSLG. After Medina is chased, Milwaukee faces the league's worst bullpen (5.44 xFIP, 1.31 HR/9).
Bichette has been among the most productive hitters in the MLB this season, but I wouldn't say I like this matchup for him tonight. Sonny Gray is on the mound for the Twins, and he holds a sparkling 2.15 ERA (3.69 xERA) that ranks third in the league. He has allowed more than two runs in just two of his 12 starts (3 ER vs. CLE on two occasions). Vegas has the Blue Jays pegged for a 4.5-run implied total, but Gray has been too good to back the over on Bichette tonight.
Hitting the 'under' on Rosario correlates to our earlier 'over' pick on Cristian Javier. Javier has been great this year, and Rosario has been, well, not great. The Guardians shortstop averages 6.38 FPTS per game, and he holds a .236 AVG, .607 OPS, and just one homer on the year. The under is clearly the correct play here.
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