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PrizePicks NFL DFS prop picks for Week 1 Thursday Night Football (September 5, 2024). Use Kipp's NFL over/under props recommendations to win money on PrizePicks.
Hello everybody and welcome to our PrizePicks NFL DFS prop picks for Week 1 Thursday Night Football -- Ravens vs. Chiefs! The 2024 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for TNF
Isiah Pacheco MORE than 61.5 rushing yards
The first few weeks of the season are always a bit tough when it comes to picking props as we have limited data to base picks on and use a large amount of data from the previous season.
That being said, both of these teams figure to be heavy on the run in this game given the strength of either their run game or the strength of the pass defense they are facing.
In this instance, the Chiefs will be up against a Ravens pass defense that ranked sixth best in the league in terms of passing yards allowed.
The Ravens did, however, allow running backs to average 4.5 yards per carry in 2023. Pacheco should be heavily involved in the ground game in this one as he averaged nearly 20 carries per game over the Chiefs' final five games in 2023.
He also averaged nearly 89 rushing yards per game over that same five-game span. The Chiefs will likely continue what gave them success late in the season and throughout the playoffs last year by feeding Pacheco a steady diet, which should lead to him getting over this total.
Lamar Jackson MORE than 47.5 rushing yards
One thing we know for certain is that Lamar Jackson will be carrying the ball in this offense. In 2023, Jackson averaged over nine carries and more than 51 rushing yards per game. He also rushed for more than 50 yards in nine total games last season, including the playoffs.
He will be up against a Chiefs defense that allowed an average of over 20 rushing yards per game to the quarterback position, which ranked them ninth worst in the league. They also allowed Lamar Jackson to carry the ball eight times for 54 rushing yards in the AFC Championship Game.
Mark Andrews LESS than 50.5 receiving yards
Mark Andrews is a solid tight end and is certainly capable of eclipsing this total, but he will have his hands full in this matchup. In 2023, Kansas City allowed an average of just 45 receiving yards per game to the tight-end position, which ranked it in the top half of the league.
In the AFC Championship Game, Andrews managed to haul in just two receptions for 15 receiving yards as well. Andrews was also somewhat pedestrian in 2023 overall.
He only played in 10 games and managed to average 54 receiving yards per game. That being said, he only eclipsed 50 receiving yards once in his final five games. This should be a solid spot to fade him in this contest.
Derrick Henry MORE than 67.5 rushing yards
Derrick Henry is somewhat of a wild card; however, he should be the feature back in this contest against a Chiefs defense that did struggle a bit against the running back position in 2023.
Overall, they allowed an average of 4.6 yards per carry to the position. They also allowed a total of 11 running backs to rush for 60 or more yards on the season.
If Henry can get 15+ carries in this game (a number he hit in 11 games last season), he should be able to eclipse this total.
Other Recommendations: Isiah Pacheco MORE than 2.5 receptions
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