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Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/9/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Drake Baldwin, Bryce Harper, and others!
Welcome Back, RotoBallers! We have a loaded slate of games on this wonderful Thursday. We usually only have eight to nine games on Thursday, but we got loaded up right before the All-Star break with 13 games! Zach nailed a +800 bet in A.J. Ewing yesterday, which was nuts! Hopefully, we can replicate something similar or better here.
In this article, I'll be going over my four favorite home run props. I've got four lefties that are in great spots to go yard; let's nail them all, shall we? Make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, which could include more home run spots as well as some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, July 9, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/9/2026)
Drake Baldwin OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 Fanatics)
Drake Baldwin had such a good start to the season; it's been nuts to see how fast he has progressed in the league. Already making his first All-Star appearance in this year's games. If it weren't for an injury, he likely could have kept pace with his teammates Michael Harris II and Matt Olson.
That being said, he has only had one home run since his injury, but that hasn't stopped him from hitting the ball hard. He has eight batted balls of over 95 mph in his last nine, including his home run against the Mets on Sunday. He has hit righties pretty well all season long, and he is going against Mitch Keller, who has slowly regressed in his last few starts.
Keller has been hit pretty hard recently; he has given up five home runs to lefties in the last three starts. Lefties are sporting a .492 SLG, .209 ISO, 14.3% Barrel%, and a 42% HardHit%. The Braves have a ton of lefties to attack him with, which could make this a tough start for him. On top of that, the Pirates have the ninth-worst ERA in the league this season.
Baldwin has started to get it into gear, and I think this is the perfect spot for him to go yard. He has a 22% Barrel% and 48.3% HardHit% on the year against RHP, so plenty of power to get the job done here.
473 FEET!
Drake Baldwin just hit the longest homer of the 2026 season 😳 https://t.co/AclE6xSkdQ pic.twitter.com/VXuOov8cSg
— MLB (@MLB) June 16, 2026
Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280 Fanatics)
I'm going to go for an easy one here, not quite Kyle Schwarber easy, but Bryce Harper has been nearly as good, especially against righties this season. Harper has hit 20 homers on the season, with 17 of them coming against RHP. Harper is sporting a .636 SLG, .339 ISO, and 15.4% Barrel%, and a 50% HardHit%.
He is getting put in a great spot here at Great American Ball Park. He lines up against Brady Singer, who has struggled at home this season in giving up the long ball. 2.2 HR/9 at home this season while giving up 20 home runs in total. 14 of which have come against lefties. Overall, they have hit him for a .548 SLG, .248 ISO, 12.5% Barrel%, and a 41.3% HardHit%.
Harper has two home runs in his last 10 games, and gets a great opportunity to make it his third in that time frame. We are getting better odds with Harper, and I like how less likely he is to strike out compared to Schwarber. Harper is going to give us better ABs, which could lead to a home run.
