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Conference Championships NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Expert Picks and Lineups (Premium Content)

For the two-game slate on Sunday, I will be breaking down each game individually and therefore there won't be a spreadsheet this week or for the Super Bowl. I will try to break down each game as in-depth as possible to give you a number of different ideas on how to approach this slate.

 

Premium NFL DFS Cheat Sheet - Conference Championships

I think the KC-CIN game is going to carry a ton of ownership based on how both offenses and defenses are perceived, so one way to get a little contrarian would be to stack more pieces from the Eagles-Niners game that is projected to be lower-scoring. You can't get away from the Bengals game, though, as we know both teams have high-powered attacks and their recent history shows that there is usually a good number of points scored there.

Let's start with the afternoon game over in the NFC and this feels like you really have to get the right pieces as the players in this one have lower floors, but arguably equal ceilings.

 

NFC Championship: San Francisco @ Philadelphia

Vegas Info: Eagles -2.5, O/U 46.5

I like the Eagles in this one and have already bet them a number of ways. I really do think this is where the Brock Purdy dream season comes to an end as the Birds have the corners who can lock up his receivers on the outside and a good enough run defense to slow down McCaffrey/Mitchell.

San Francisco got away with playing conservatively last week against Dallas and the Cowboys really helped them out by turning the ball over and not finishing drives. The Eagles won't be so easy to stop as they had arguably the best and most balanced offense in the entire NFL this season.

Jalen Hurts is a great play this weekend and will be lower-owned than either QB in the KC-CIN game, too. His rushing upside is greater than Burrow's or a hobbled Mahomes' and he has his full complement of weapons at his disposal against a San Francisco pass defense that surrendered a lot of yards, especially toward the end of the season.

The Niners' run defense is legit and they'll likely be able to limit Miles Sanders in this one. But can they stop Hurts from scrambling or the passing game? I'm skeptical. AJ Brown is a major mismatch for any corner and is primed for a big game after being lightly used last week. DeVonta Smith has a 30% target share for Philly over the last two months, and Dallas Goedert is basically Travis Kelce, just used a lot less often.

Eagles stacks are my favorite way to get different on this one, but we should certainly look at some San Fran players, too. McCaffrey should be relatively healthy and has big play upside, especially in the passing game. But my favorite play is Deebo Samuel, who since returning from his injury has led the team in target share. Aiyuk is cheap and viable, especially if the Niners are forced to throw more than they want. And we saw George Kittle make big plays last week, so I won't ever talk you off him. But guessing which guy scores a TD or leads the team in receiving in this matchup is going to be tough and I am likely just going to try to go over the field on Samuel (who has rushing upside, too) and go underweight (or fade) the other Niners' pass-catchers.

CASH PLAYS: Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert

GPP PLAYS: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk

DEEP FIELD TOURNAMENTS/LEVERAGE PLAYS: Elijah Mitchell, George Kittle, Quez Watkins

FAVORITE STACKS: Hurts + two of Brown/Smith/Godert + Deebo Samuel

 

AFC Championship: Cincinnati @ Kansas City

Vegas Info: Chiefs -1.5, O/U 48

This line has flipped flop a few times as the Bengals went from underdogs to favorites and back to underdogs. Why? Because everyone is speculating about the health of Patrick Mahomes and his ankle. Will Mahomes be mobile enough to run and around and extend plays or will be more confined to the pocket?

Any way you slice it, Mahomes is firmly in play on this slate with his talent and the talent surrounding him. Even if he's not 100%, he could certainly have a big game, but figuring out who to stack him with (other than Travis Kelce) is a nightmare. Kelce is a fine option this week, but we should note that the Bengals were pretty effective at limiting him earlier this year (4-56 on 6 targets). MVS had a TD last week but is a total dart-throw, while JuJu Smith-Schuster is probably the best non-Kelce option at WR for KC. Watch for Mecole Hardman's status and if he's out again, then we can seriously look at Kadarius Toney for KC, too.

Both backs are really interesting for KC, especially if they go with a more run-heavy approach this week. Pacheco averaged 4.7 yards per carry against the Bengals while McKinnon went for 6.4 yards per tote in that first game, too. I like McKinnon's upside in the receiving game but I will have exposure to both guys for sure.

The Bengals are probably the chalkiest team on the slate, especially Joe Burrow who is priced quite egregiously on DraftKings. The narrative surrounding Burrow owning the Chiefs is being played quite a bit, but you can't deny that the guy looks locked in right now and is playing as confidently as any QB in the league. He will be popular, but you're going to want some Burrow and of course his top receiving option, Ja'Marr Chase.

Tee Higgins had a TD in that first game but caught only three balls on five targets. He was outgained by Tyler Boyd, who is one of my favorite contrarian plays especially with Hayden Hurst nursing an injury. Hurst is in play, too, and is dirt cheap and coming off a great game, so don't rule him out entirely.

The Bengals backfield warrants exposure, too, with Mixon being underpriced and Perine having solidified his change-of-pace and 3rd-down role, too. It was Perine who started for Mixon in that first matchup and who ran for over 100 yards against KC, while catching six balls for 49 yards, too. He's a guy I want a lot of in tournaments in case the Bengals have to air it out a ton.

CASH PLAYS: Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Jerick McKinnon, Joe Mixon, Travis Kelce

GPP PLAYS: Samaje Perine, Kadarius Toney, Patrick Mahomes, Isaiah Pacheco

DEEP FIELD TOURNAMENTS/LEVERAGE PLAYS: Tyler Boyd, Noah Gray, Hayden Hurst

FAVORITE STACKS: Burrow-Chase-Boyd/Perine with Pacheco/McKinnon coming back.

 

 FINAL THOUGHTS

There are some ways to be different here on a small slate that I think you should consider.

  1. Double-up running backs from the same team - Cincy, San Francisco, and Kansas City in particular have two viable backs on this slate and if any of those teams win going away, we could see both backs be optimal and get more touches than they're projected for.
  2. Double-TE builds are viable as all four teams have a really good pass-catcher who has a major role in their offense. Kelce's ownership is going to lap the others, so going with two of the other TEs in the same build will surely set you apart from the field.
  3. Ignore your normal correlation rules. You wouldn't normally run a QB and his team's defense, but you can do it here with any of these four teams. I already mentioned RB1 + RB2 which is normally a no-no. Even going with WR1 + WR2 without their QB (say Smith + Brown without Hurts) is viable in my opinion.
  4. Onslaught stacks make some sense here and are pretty easy to fit with the third and fourth options for most teams being very affordable. For example, Burrow + Chase + Mixon + Hurst/Boyd/Perine or Hurts+Brown+Goedert+Watkins.
  5. I built two different sample lineups for each site to give you a lot of ideas. Best of luck this week, let's get it!

 

Premium DFS Expert Lineups - Conference Championships

FanDuel Lineups

DraftKings Lineups

Please note that these are sample lineups we provide as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building-block options as you go about choosing your own lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.



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