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The Big 12 takes on an all-new look in 2023, as the conference has added four teams. This will be the only season of this 14-team version of the conference, as even more realignment will shift things around ahead of the 2024 season.
What can we expect from this iteration of the conference? Can Texas find its way back to the top of the conference in its final season before the Longhorns depart for the SEC?
Below are the power rankings for the Big 12 for the 2023 college football season.
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14. West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia went 5-7 last year and was 3-6 in conference play. Any chance of improving will depend on how quarterback Garrett Greene is able to play as he ascends to the starting role. He completed just 55.1% of his passes last season for the Mountaineers, appearing in nine games, including three starts late in the season. The three-year backup will need to improve on his passing accuracy in order for this team to pull itself out of the Big 12 cellar, something I'm not really expecting. One bright spot is the team has arguably the best center in the country in Zach Frazier.
13. Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats have been one of the best Group of Five programs in the country over the past few years, but the departure of head coach Luke Fickell to Wisconsin and the move to a Power Five conference could lead to some struggles in the Queen City. One bright spot: defensive tackle Dontay Corleone is one of the best interior defenders in the country.
12. BYU Cougars
BYU has finished over .500 for five consecutive seasons, but there's a good chance that run ends for the Cougars this season as they move into a conference for the first time since 2010. The schedule gets tougher now, and the team's defensive issues at the end of last year will likely be magnified against Big 12 opponents. The Cougars allowed fewer than 26 points just once in their final 10 games and ranking 97th in scoring offense.
Kedon Slovis takes over as BYU's quarterback. After a fantastic freshman year at USC in 2019, Slovis has seen his numbers fall off every season, and last year at Pitt, he completed just 58.3% of his passes with 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
11. Iowa State Cyclones
After a gambling scandal this offseason, the Cyclones will have to replace quarterback Hunter Dekkers. I really like the upside of freshman J.J. Kohl, but that's more of a long-term solution. Whether it's Kohl or Rocco Becht taking snaps, it's going to be a learning experience for the team. And it wasn't just Dekkers caught up in the gambling issues—the team also loses its starting running back and tight end as well. The defensive talent will keep Iowa State from finishing last in the Big 12, but it's going to be a tough season.
10. Houston Cougars
Maybe I'm too high on the Cougars. Maybe I'm the victim of a pro-UH bias there since I got my undergraduate degree from Cougar High back in 2012. I just don't see Houston being a rock-bottom team in this conference. The defense really struggled last year, but defensive coordinator Doug Belk has built some really good units in the past, so I expect to see this team bounce back on that side of the ball. Offensively, the addition of former Texas Tech quarterback Donovan Smith should spark something in this offense, and wide receiver Matthew Golden could be a breakout player now that Tank Dell is in the NFL.
9. Kansas Jayhawks
Ranking Kansas was tough because so much will depend on how healthy Jalon Daniels is. Last season, he passed for 2,014 yards and 18 touchdowns to just four picks while also adding 425 yards and seven scores on the ground.
The team finished just 1-7 to end last season, but Daniels missed a chunk of time with a shoulder injury. Now, he's reportedly dealing with a back injury. If Daniels can play as he did at the start of the 2022 season, Kansas could surprise people, but a young defense that struggled last year could hold the team back.
8. Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys have to replace quarterback Spencer Sanders, who left for Ole Miss in the transfer portal. Nailing his replacement is the big concern for Mike Gundy this season. Alan Bowman should be the favorite for the role, but plenty of question marks exist. Bowman threw 17 touchdowns in his first year as a starter at Texas Tech, but that was way back in 2018. He was a backup at Michigan the past two seasons, throwing just 11 passes during that time. Will he be able to shake the rust off?
7. UCF Knights
Of the four new additions to the Big 12, I think UCF should be in line for the best debut season. The team went 9-5 last season, which included consecutive losses to end the season, but the Knights ranked 31st in scoring offense, led by John Rhys Plumlee, who threw for 2,586 yards and rushed for another 862. Between his arm and legs, he accounted for 25 touchdowns. He could be a lot of fun to watch against Big 12 defenses.
6. Baylor Bears
After winning 12 games in 2021, Dave Aranda's team looked like it might be the new class of the Big 12. Then the Bears went just 6-7 last season. What happened?
For one, Blake Shapen was fine at quarterback, but that's it. He needs to take another step forward this year. A bigger concern was losing four straight to end the year and allowing 29 or more points in all four games. I believe in this team to bounce back in 2023, but they aren't going to compete for the conference title.
5. TCU Horned Frogs
Last year was a perfect storm for TCU, as the combination of quarterback Max Duggan and wide receiver Quentin Johnston led the Horned Frogs all the way to the national title game, where they lost 65-7 to Georgia.
Chandler Morris takes over at quarterback this year. While I don't think this program has a chance to repeat last year's miracle run, Morris is a talented player who just hasn't gotten his shot yet as a full-time college starter. He's going to surprise people this year and TCU should easily be back in a bowl game for the second year in a row.
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech went 8-5 in former high school coaching legend Joey McGuire's debut on the sidelines in Lubbock, and this year's team returns a whole lot of talent from last year's team. That continuity should make Tech a top-four team in the conference. As for whether or not the team can have some kind of 2022 TCU-esque run, that'll depend on Tyler Shough and if he can both stay healthy and look more like he did at Oregon in 2020 than he did in his seven games last year with the Red Raiders.
3. Oklahoma Sooners
Brent Venables' first season in Norman was a disaster. The Sooners finished 6-7, marking the first year under .500 for Oklahoma since 1998. John Blake was the Sooners' head coach then. Seth Littrell was playing running back for them. The team's top passer, Jake Sills, threw for 502 yards. It was a different time.
Oklahoma should be better this season. They return a solid quarterback in Dillon Gabriel, and they hit the portal hard to fix a defense that was shockingly bad. Venables might not be Lincoln Riley, but he's not going to let the Sooners have a second bad year in a row.
2. Kansas State Wildcats
It feels like Kansas State was the least discussed 10-win team in the country last year. The Wildcats were really good in 2022, beating TCU in the Big 12 title game and winning four of their final five contests, with the one loss coming in the Sugar Bowl to Alabama. Quarterback Will Howard is back and the team added talent in the portal on defense and at running back, where the biggest question is probably how the team replaces Deuce Vaughn. Bringing in Treshaun Ward from Florida State should help them there.
1. Texas Longhorns
The last time the Texas Longhorns won the Big 12 was in 2009. Since then, the Longhorns have won 10 or more games just once, and they've finished under .500 three times.
There's genuine optimism in Austin this season. Quinn Ewers might be the real deal at quarterback and his top two receivers, Xavier Worthy and Ja'Tavion Sanders, are back as well. The Longhorns were 25th in scoring offense last season, a number that should go up. Replacing Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson will be tough, but this is the Big 12's most talented team and the clear favorite to win the conference.
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