RADIO
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We all strive to do a better job at covering fantasy baseball points leagues on top of the traditional rotisserie format, so let's get busy with a lineup of players I've been drafting a ton of across points leagues. RotoBaller won't leave you high and dry, so here I am to provide strong values that I'm targeting on most sites.
In order to evaluate overvalued players here, we're going to utilize Average Draft Position (ADP) data made available from NFBC Cutline points leagues, with a focus on late February-early March ADP. We know each format is scored differently, but they split out ADP for us and remain a pillar of the fantasy community. I reserve the right to edit names/analyses as I please if situations change, but I'll be sure to drop a note in bold if I do!
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Fantasy Baseball Points League Targets - Hitters
Catcher: Luis Campusano (NFBC Cutline ADP: 156, No. 17 C)
Campusano just hit .319 with seven home runs and a paltry 12% strikeout rate. Some may look at catchers with extra skepticism, but I must note his xBA was also .305 and he hit over .300 on fastballs, breaking, and offspeed pitches per Statcast. That's not to say he is devoid of weaknesses, but Campusano touts a well-rounded bat and performed well in a small sample (174 plate appearances in 2023).
Last season, we highlighted William Contreras in this space because his profile fit well and his path to everyday playing time was reasonable. Campusano doesn't have quite the trajectory of Contreras, but his ADP is also lower so the risk remains more than tolerable. Potential and volume are the name of the game for this piece.
Luis Campusano has big breakout appeal in 2024.
2023: 174 PA, .319/.356/.491, 7 HR, 12.1% K
- Above-average plate discipline, solid pop
- Should be the starter and get 500+ PA.Legit shot a .280/20.#FantasyBaseball #Padres pic.twitter.com/a4jynVoxjX
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) December 8, 2023
First Base: Josh Naylor (Cutline ADP: 104, No. 14 1B)
Naylor showed promising breakout signs early in 2022, hitting .274 with 13 home runs and 47 RBI in 62 first-half games before a post-break fade. He notably crushed right-handed pitching but struggled against portsiders (19 of his 20 HRs, .856 OPS versus a .512 OPS against southpaws). He bucked both of these trends in 2023, however.
The 26-year-old hit above .300 on both sides of the All-Star break, and produced an OPS above .820 against both LHP and RHP. While his walk rate won’t win any awards (6.7% in ‘23, 7.1% career), it comes with a strikeout rate that has fallen from 18% in ‘21 to 16.1% in ‘22 and 13.7% in ‘23.
His 97 RBI in just 121 games last season underscores his role in the heart of Cleveland’s order. He even chipped in 10 steals! His approach is a healthy one for points leagues (and roto too!) and can be aggressively pursued in most point formats.
Second Base: Brendan Donovan (Cutline ADP: 254, No. 26 2B)
Donovan will start the season at second base as the Cardinals protect his surgically repaired elbow from long throws, but the bat should be A-OK. His power took a step forward in his sophomore season, yielding an ISO of .138 compared to .097 in ‘22.
The fly-ball rate jumped seven percentage points while his pull rate rose by six. The overall HR/FB rate more than doubled all while he maintained his steady plate discipline. Out of 262 hitters with >600 PAs in the last two years, Donovan’s 0.76 BB:K ranks 11th. We like those profiles.
Third Base: Ryan McMahon (Cutline ADP: 186, No. 21 3B)
McMahon is constantly overlooked just because he doesn’t have one overwhelming fantasy tool. He’s hit at least 20 HRs with five or more swipes and over 150 games played in each of the last three seasons, but his average sits around .25) while the R+RBI tallies suffer with Colorado’s lesser lineups.
The 29-year-old also owns a 10.2% career walk rate, but one red flag did re-emerge in ‘23. His strikeout rate climbed back to 31.6% from the ~25% seen in ‘21 and ‘22. Regardless, reliable PT with his modest production holds value, even if it isn’t exciting.
Shortstop: Jeremy Pena (Cutline ADP: 202, No. 23 SS)
The sophomore slump came for Pena hard. His HR/FB rate was slashed in half and he barely kept his overall fly-ball rate north of 25%. The decreased power output led to many sour opinions, but he enters Year 3 with promising signals. For one, he reportedly tweaked his swing to be “less noisy.”
One major difference with Jeremy Peña's swing, look how he rests his bat on his shoulder, similar to Michael Brantley.
Also less bouncing.
Pena's biggest issue last year was he couldn't properly elevate the ball. Hopefully this raises his launch angle pic.twitter.com/gCfNHjvKnu
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) February 19, 2024
I’m not easily swayed by most offseason reports, but this could help him regain a swift cut that allows him to get under the ball more consistently. Lost in the power outage was a walk rate that rose from 3.9% in ‘22 to 6.8% alongside a four-percentage-point drop in the Ks. An everyday role for Houston holds immense potential at a cushy price point.
Outfield: Brandon Nimmo (Cutline ADP: 161, No. 45 OF)
This should just be a copy-paste section every year. His ADP is always too low, likely due to the injury history, but he’s topped 150 games in the last two seasons. The ‘22 and ‘23 seasons saw nearly identical triple-slashes of .274/.367/.433 and .274/.363/.466, respectively.
The power kicked up a notch, with a doubling of his average launch angle and an eight-percentage-point boost in both fly-ball and hard-hit rate, per Statcast. The 2023 season was also his seventh straight year with a double-digit walk rate. His job as the Mets’ leadoff man is simply icing on the volume cake. I need him on all of my points-based rosters.
Outfield #2: Jung Hoo Lee (Cutline ADP: 217, No. 57 OF)
Lee has been a menace to opposing pitchers in the KBO since he was 18 years old, and now he’s come stateside. He isn’t a slugger so much as a tactician and contact maverick. His 2023 season was cut short by a fractured ankle, but he still posted a .318/.406/.455 slash line with a 12.7% walk rate to a mere 5.9% strikeout rate. That 2.13 BB:K paced the KBO.
His 2.06 mark from his MVP-winning ‘22 campaign was miles ahead of second place (1.38). He also hit .349 with 23 HRs and 113 RBI over 142 games then, but projects closer to 10-12 HRs in San Francisco. Still, a keen eye and trained bat should settle into SF’s leadoff spot and earn many opportunities to supply profits in most points formats.
Bob Melvin said he “would be shocked” if Jung Hoo Lee isn’t the leadoff hitter on opening day. The plan is for Lee to lead off against righties and lefties.
— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) February 14, 2024
Fantasy Baseball Points League Targets - Pitchers
Pitcher #1: Joe Ryan (Cutline ADP: 119, No. 33 P)
It’s easy to lay out a bunch of “compilers” who should net you 180-200 healthy innings en route to an above-average finish. You don’t need me to tell you about the (relative) safety of taking Justin Steele, Chris Bassitt, or Sonny Gray. But I do want to highlight someone in the earlier rounds that I’ve been targeting in Mr. Ryan.
His tendency to lean on the four-seam fastball has left him susceptible to homers throughout his career, with HR/9 marks above 1.00 coming as soon as he hit Double-A. But he worked in a sweeper/slider as well as a splitter in 2023 to help him near 50% usage on the fastball. He’d had his speed bumps, but last year got off to a bang through 15 starts: 93 ⅔ IP, 8-4 W/L, 100:15 K:BB, 2.98 ERA (2.77 FIP), and only eight HRs allowed.
Ryan had just posted a complete-game shutout of the Red Sox on June 22 before a road game in Atlanta where he initially felt the groin pull that sunk his season during pregame warmups. The Braves would jump on him for six runs on five HRs and start a seven-game stretch that yielded an 8.63 ERA with 17 HRs allowed over just 32 ⅓ IP.
He eventually reported that he was pushing through injuries and went on the IL in early August. He returned three weeks later and had a decent final month, though one Coors start tilted the stats.
I believe in him to lean on complimentary pitches more and report future injuries (!) but the potential is too much for me. I’ll leave you with this. His 24.3% K-BB% trailed only Spencer Strider and Tyler Glasnow out of 127 SPs with 100 or more frames in ‘23.
Went on a Joe Ryan rabbit hole this morning.
Pre-Groin Injury: 93.2 IP/2.98 ERA/2.77 FIP/100 K/15 BB/8 HR
Post-Injury: 68 IP/6.62 ERA/6.01 FIP/97 K/19 BB/24 HR
FB location got worse, velo dipped, release point changed, IVB dropped an inch.
A Healthy season could see a bounceback.— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) February 24, 2024
Pitcher #2: Nick Pivetta (Cutline ADP: 187, No. 57 P)
Pivetta had an underwhelming start to 2023, posting a 5.11 ERA in April and a 6.20 ERA in May. His OPS against was above .800 in each month and he subsequently lost his rotation spot in late May. It was fellow bullpen-mate Chris Martin who introduced him to a cutter in early June as they were playing catch. Pivetta would walk seven batters against one strikeout in four unusual games (3 IP), but perhaps this was an adjustment period.
From June 18 on, Pivetta was one of the best pitchers in baseball, entering for long-relief stints before getting consistent starts again in September. Here are the numbers: 89 ⅓ IP, 7-5 W/L, 3.22 ERA (3.18 FIP), 0.93 WHIP, 127:24 K:BB (!) for a beautiful 29.7% K-BB rate.
Said rate and his 36.6% K rate led all pitchers with a minimum of 80 IP in that window. This includes Strider, Glasnow, and so on. We have a marked arsenal/approach change and incredible results. He demands more respect than this ADP.
Pitcher #3: Tanner Scott (Cutline ADP: 197, No. 61 P) & several other relievers! Most of them! All of them?
I understand each points format treats all players differently, but RPs may be the most platform-dependent. Therefore, I won’t drone on here but I must point out some fun tidbits and use this space as an excuse to talk about heavily-used platforms.
Saves aren’t scored on Underdog and DraftKings, making all RPs effectively undraftable. On sites like NFBC, most relievers are undervalued on the market. Let’s use ATC Projections to illustrate the profit potential between Projected Points for RPs versus their ADP there:
You can see each reliever is projected to outscore their current ADP within that scoring system. You can take this exercise and apply it to other sites as you like and determine whether RPs are a profit source or to be ignored. They typically fall into one bucket or the other.
Scott appears to be the biggest jumper of the bunch, and I know many of you won't draft based solely on ATC or any projection system, nor should you! But when there is this large of a gap across the board then I want you to at least think twice about altering your approach.
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