X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Points Leagues Targets for Fantasy Baseball - Hitters and Pitchers to Draft (2024)

Josh Naylor - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News - icon rotoballer

Nick's list of fantasy baseball points leagues sleepers and value picks to target in points leagues (2024). Pitchers and hitters who have ADPs below market value.

This premium article is part of our 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit and a free sample of the expert analysis loaded up in RotoBaller's Draft Kit. Enjoy this premium article for free for a limited time. All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard.

We all strive to do a better job at covering fantasy baseball points leagues on top of the traditional rotisserie format, so let's get busy with a lineup of players I've been drafting a ton of across points leagues. RotoBaller won't leave you high and dry, so here I am to provide strong values that I'm targeting on most sites.

In order to evaluate overvalued players here, we're going to utilize Average Draft Position (ADP) data made available from NFBC Cutline points leagues, with a focus on late February-early March ADP. We know each format is scored differently, but they split out ADP for us and remain a pillar of the fantasy community. I reserve the right to edit names/analyses as I please if situations change, but I'll be sure to drop a note in bold if I do!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Fantasy Baseball Points League Targets - Hitters

Catcher: Luis Campusano (NFBC Cutline ADP: 156, No. 17 C)

Campusano just hit .319 with seven home runs and a paltry 12% strikeout rate. Some may look at catchers with extra skepticism, but I must note his xBA was also .305 and he hit over .300 on fastballs, breaking, and offspeed pitches per Statcast. That's not to say he is devoid of weaknesses, but Campusano touts a well-rounded bat and performed well in a small sample (174 plate appearances in 2023).

Last season, we highlighted William Contreras in this space because his profile fit well and his path to everyday playing time was reasonable. Campusano doesn't have quite the trajectory of Contreras, but his ADP is also lower so the risk remains more than tolerable. Potential and volume are the name of the game for this piece.

First Base: Josh Naylor (Cutline ADP: 104, No. 14 1B)

Naylor showed promising breakout signs early in 2022, hitting .274 with 13 home runs and 47 RBI in 62 first-half games before a post-break fade. He notably crushed right-handed pitching but struggled against portsiders (19 of his 20 HRs, .856 OPS versus a .512 OPS against southpaws). He bucked both of these trends in 2023, however.

The 26-year-old hit above .300 on both sides of the All-Star break, and produced an OPS above .820 against both LHP and RHP. While his walk rate won’t win any awards (6.7% in ‘23, 7.1% career), it comes with a strikeout rate that has fallen from 18% in ‘21 to 16.1% in ‘22 and 13.7% in ‘23.

His 97 RBI in just 121 games last season underscores his role in the heart of Cleveland’s order. He even chipped in 10 steals! His approach is a healthy one for points leagues (and roto too!) and can be aggressively pursued in most point formats.

Second Base: Brendan Donovan (Cutline ADP: 254, No. 26 2B)

Donovan will start the season at second base as the Cardinals protect his surgically repaired elbow from long throws, but the bat should be A-OK. His power took a step forward in his sophomore season, yielding an ISO of .138 compared to .097 in ‘22.

The fly-ball rate jumped seven percentage points while his pull rate rose by six. The overall HR/FB rate more than doubled all while he maintained his steady plate discipline. Out of 262 hitters with >600 PAs in the last two years, Donovan’s 0.76 BB:K ranks 11th. We like those profiles.

Third Base: Ryan McMahon (Cutline ADP: 186, No. 21 3B)

McMahon is constantly overlooked just because he doesn’t have one overwhelming fantasy tool. He’s hit at least 20 HRs with five or more swipes and over 150 games played in each of the last three seasons, but his average sits around .25) while the R+RBI tallies suffer with Colorado’s lesser lineups.

The 29-year-old also owns a 10.2% career walk rate, but one red flag did re-emerge in ‘23. His strikeout rate climbed back to 31.6% from the ~25% seen in ‘21 and ‘22. Regardless, reliable PT with his modest production holds value, even if it isn’t exciting.

Shortstop: Jeremy Pena (Cutline ADP: 202, No. 23 SS)

The sophomore slump came for Pena hard. His HR/FB rate was slashed in half and he barely kept his overall fly-ball rate north of 25%. The decreased power output led to many sour opinions, but he enters Year 3 with promising signals. For one, he reportedly tweaked his swing to be “less noisy.”

I’m not easily swayed by most offseason reports, but this could help him regain a swift cut that allows him to get under the ball more consistently. Lost in the power outage was a walk rate that rose from 3.9% in ‘22 to 6.8% alongside a four-percentage-point drop in the Ks. An everyday role for Houston holds immense potential at a cushy price point.

Outfield: Brandon Nimmo (Cutline ADP: 161, No. 45 OF)

This should just be a copy-paste section every year. His ADP is always too low, likely due to the injury history, but he’s topped 150 games in the last two seasons. The ‘22 and ‘23 seasons saw nearly identical triple-slashes of .274/.367/.433 and .274/.363/.466, respectively.

The power kicked up a notch, with a doubling of his average launch angle and an eight-percentage-point boost in both fly-ball and hard-hit rate, per Statcast. The 2023 season was also his seventh straight year with a double-digit walk rate. His job as the Mets’ leadoff man is simply icing on the volume cake. I need him on all of my points-based rosters.

Outfield #2: Jung Hoo Lee (Cutline ADP: 217, No. 57 OF)

Lee has been a menace to opposing pitchers in the KBO since he was 18 years old, and now he’s come stateside. He isn’t a slugger so much as a tactician and contact maverick. His 2023 season was cut short by a fractured ankle, but he still posted a .318/.406/.455 slash line with a 12.7% walk rate to a mere 5.9% strikeout rate. That 2.13 BB:K paced the KBO.

His 2.06 mark from his MVP-winning ‘22 campaign was miles ahead of second place (1.38). He also hit .349 with 23 HRs and 113 RBI over 142 games then, but projects closer to 10-12 HRs in San Francisco. Still, a keen eye and trained bat should settle into SF’s leadoff spot and earn many opportunities to supply profits in most points formats.

 

Fantasy Baseball Points League Targets - Pitchers

Pitcher #1: Joe Ryan (Cutline ADP: 119, No. 33 P)

It’s easy to lay out a bunch of “compilers” who should net you 180-200 healthy innings en route to an above-average finish. You don’t need me to tell you about the (relative) safety of taking Justin Steele, Chris Bassitt, or Sonny Gray. But I do want to highlight someone in the earlier rounds that I’ve been targeting in Mr. Ryan.

His tendency to lean on the four-seam fastball has left him susceptible to homers throughout his career, with HR/9 marks above 1.00 coming as soon as he hit Double-A. But he worked in a sweeper/slider as well as a splitter in 2023 to help him near 50% usage on the fastball. He’d had his speed bumps, but last year got off to a bang through 15 starts: 93 ⅔ IP, 8-4 W/L, 100:15 K:BB, 2.98 ERA (2.77 FIP), and only eight HRs allowed.

Ryan had just posted a complete-game shutout of the Red Sox on June 22 before a road game in Atlanta where he initially felt the groin pull that sunk his season during pregame warmups. The Braves would jump on him for six runs on five HRs and start a seven-game stretch that yielded an 8.63 ERA with 17 HRs allowed over just 32 ⅓ IP.

He eventually reported that he was pushing through injuries and went on the IL in early August. He returned three weeks later and had a decent final month, though one Coors start tilted the stats.

I believe in him to lean on complimentary pitches more and report future injuries (!) but the potential is too much for me. I’ll leave you with this. His 24.3% K-BB% trailed only Spencer Strider and Tyler Glasnow out of 127 SPs with 100 or more frames in ‘23.

Pitcher #2: Nick Pivetta (Cutline ADP: 187, No. 57 P)

Pivetta had an underwhelming start to 2023, posting a 5.11 ERA in April and a 6.20 ERA in May. His OPS against was above .800 in each month and he subsequently lost his rotation spot in late May. It was fellow bullpen-mate Chris Martin who introduced him to a cutter in early June as they were playing catch. Pivetta would walk seven batters against one strikeout in four unusual games (3 IP), but perhaps this was an adjustment period.

From June 18 on, Pivetta was one of the best pitchers in baseball, entering for long-relief stints before getting consistent starts again in September. Here are the numbers: 89 ⅓ IP, 7-5 W/L, 3.22 ERA (3.18 FIP), 0.93 WHIP, 127:24 K:BB (!) for a beautiful 29.7% K-BB rate.

Said rate and his 36.6% K rate led all pitchers with a minimum of 80 IP in that window. This includes Strider, Glasnow, and so on. We have a marked arsenal/approach change and incredible results. He demands more respect than this ADP.

Pitcher #3: Tanner Scott (Cutline ADP: 197, No. 61 P) & several other relievers! Most of them! All of them?

I understand each points format treats all players differently, but RPs may be the most platform-dependent. Therefore, I won’t drone on here but I must point out some fun tidbits and use this space as an excuse to talk about heavily-used platforms.

Saves aren’t scored on Underdog and DraftKings, making all RPs effectively undraftable. On sites like NFBC, most relievers are undervalued on the market. Let’s use ATC Projections to illustrate the profit potential between Projected Points for RPs versus their ADP there:

You can see each reliever is projected to outscore their current ADP within that scoring system. You can take this exercise and apply it to other sites as you like and determine whether RPs are a profit source or to be ignored. They typically fall into one bucket or the other.

Scott appears to be the biggest jumper of the bunch, and I know many of you won't draft based solely on ATC or any projection system, nor should you! But when there is this large of a gap across the board then I want you to at least think twice about altering your approach.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Max Fried

Exits Start With Blister
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Hunter Dobbins

to Miss Rest of Season With Torn ACL
Nolan Arenado

Held Out of Lineup on Saturday
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Carlos Correa

Sitting on Saturday
Austin Riley

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Nolan Arenado

Exits Friday's Contest With Sprained Finger
Jake Burger

Expects to Play on Saturday
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Wyatt Langford

Records Four-Hit Night
Cal Raleigh

Homers Twice, Drives in Five
Cody Bellinger

Swats Three Homers in Victory
Jake Burger

Leaves With Quad Discomfort on Friday
Carlos Correa

Exits Game With Mild Ankle Sprain
Edward Cabrera

Dealing with Posterior Elbow Discomfort
Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Demarcus Robinson

Sentenced to Three Years of Probation
Jalen Nailor

In Line for WR3 Role in Minnesota
Andrew Thomas

Could Miss Start of 2025 Season
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF