RADIO
You did it! If you're reading this article, it likely means you've made your fantasy playoffs or are expecting to. So, first off, congratulations. That's no small feat, especially in this weird season. However, now that you've made it this far, we need to switch up the way we start thinking about our roster a bit.
Now that you're in the playoffs, you want to maximize your potential upside each week. There is no "potential upside stash" anymore. There are handcuff running backs who could be league winners in case of an injury, but there's no more need to stash the Matt Breida types "just in case" they win the starting role. The same goes for stashing low-upside plays like Rex Burkhead or Tim Patrick on your bench. If your starting lineup is set for this week, you should turn your attention to what next week looks like and fill those voids.
Answer the questions like, Will you need a better TE play? Do you have a playable DST matchup? Just like every other position on your team, you need to be able to make sure that your DST slot is planned for ahead of time. Think about having two defenses on your roster as a tandem and make sure the combined schedule is as beneficial to you as possible. Sometimes you can weather a bad matchup with a good defense if that means you get a cushy schedule afterward, but if it's a rough road for a couple of weeks, it might be best to move on now and find a defense that pairs better with the other option you have.
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Below you'll get my full playoff defense rankings. The PLUS matchups (the ones we want) are colored in green, while the BAD matchups (the ones to avoid) are in red. Use the charts to find the best possible pairings. That way you can lock that defense in ahead of time without having to spend precious waiver money or without getting sniped by your leaguemates. However, I urge you to remember that these rankings take into account EVERY WEEK of the playoffs, so while the Chargers may not be high in these because they play the Chiefs in Week 15, they have two great match-ups afterward, so if you find a replacement for Week 15, then the Chargers are looking like a much better option for the final two weeks of the season.
Just like with my weekly rankings, I encourage you to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week(s) goes on. The outlook of some of these teams could change drastically due to injury in these final weeks.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great; however, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run. Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense and start embracing teams that put a lot of pressure on the quarterback or create lots of turnovers.
What is the BOD Ranking?
BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success which are ones that focus mainly on pressure rate but also on turnover rate since these are metrics that traditionally lead to the most consistent results and are also scheme-dependent, thus highlighting defensive schemes that are more fantasy-friendly. You can see the full updated leaderboard here but the basic formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (Pass Rush Win Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for the Playoffs
Tampa Bay slides up to number one once we factor in just their playoff matchups. The Bucs are the 5th-ranked defense over the last month of the season and get a cakewalk of a schedule to finish the season. The Saints with Taysom Hill and Trevor Semien at quarterback have been a more giving offense; however, we should expect Alvin Kamara back for this matchup. Then the Bucs get two of the easiest matchups in the league for the final two games of the playoffs, which really is the best you can ask for if you held strong with the Bucs defense while they were going through some ups and downs in the mid part of the season.
The Bills hold at number two despite losing Tre White and falling behind New England in my season-long rankings because of the strength of schedule they have coming up. They remain 1st in yards allowed per play, 1st in turnover rate, 1st in percentage of drives that end in an opposing score, 1st in QB hurry rate, and 2nd in pressure rate. They're just an incredibly well-rounded unit. They also have two of their three playoff games against the best offenses to target in fantasy football and one game against a Patriots team that will be a tough game but likely won't put up enough points to really cause the Bills to have a low total. With the Bills fighting for a playoff spot, all of their starters should play each of these games, and you have to feel confident rolling their defense out in the playoffs.
I know some people may be shocked to see the Dolphins this high but look at that remaining schedule. The only matchup that might really concern you is Tennessee in Week 17 with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones likely back. I know there are some rumors Derrick Henry could come back for that game, but I'm off the mind that the Titans would just bring Henry back for the playoffs, if he's healthy enough to come back at all. Miami has been the number two fantasy defense over the last month, so I have no problem making them my primary defense for the playoffs.
Dallas has been a strong defense all year long and are the 3rd-ranked defense over the last month. On top of that, they now welcome Demarcus Lawrence back into the fold, which frees up Micah Parsons to move back to linebacker where he can be more of an asset all over the field. They have two really strong matchups in the first two weeks of the playoffs, but they take a slight hit in the rankings because I might be looking elsewhere during the championship game rather than roll out the Cowboys against a really strong, and likely fully healthy, Cardinals offense.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for the Playoffs
This is a tier mixed with defenses that currently rank inside my top-10 for the season and a couple of strong defenses that have mouth-watering end-of-season schedules.
Don't look now, but the 49ers are starting to play strong defense as they've gotten back a few of their injured stars in Dee Ford and Dre Greenlaw. Over their last four games, the 49ers are the 6th-ranked defense, averaging 10.3 points per game, and then look at that schedule. It's beautiful. Just like we mentioned with Miami above, we should expect the Titans to have their star receivers back for this game, but Derrick Henry will not be playing, so this remains a Titans offense that we shouldn't be massively afraid of. I expect San Francisco to be an elite play in Week 15 and 17 and maybe pairing them with a team who has a great Week 16 matchup (like the Chargers) could give you tremendous production at the DST spot.
It's because of the risk of the next two teams that I decided to put the Patriots over both of them despite having a far harder schedule. The Patriots are the best defense in fantasy football right now, but that playoff schedule is not good. The Colts are the second-best team at limiting fantasy points to opposing defenses because they play a ball-control offense and protect the quarterback at an elite level. The Bills, when not playing in 40 mph winds, are also a really dynamic offense that could put up 30+ points easily. That means the first two weeks of the playoffs figure to be low-ceiling games for New England. However, I would be shocked if this defense got beat soundly, which means they should still come with a safe floor. If you can weather that, your reward is a championship game against the Jaguars. I think pairing New England with San Francisco or Cincinnati seems feasible in most leagues and could be a great strategy for the playoffs.
The Eagles are the next surprise for me here because they haven't been consistent on defense this season. However, you can't say anything negative about that schedule, and the Eagles have been the 9th-ranked fantasy defense over their last four games, averaging 9.0 points per game. It's not an elite total, and they have let down in some strong matchups, like Week 13 against the Jets, but you can't ask for much better of a schedule the rest of the way. They won't give you warm and fuzzy feelings, and the risk is certainly there for a defense that is 24th in turnover rate and 27th in pressure rate on the season.
The Bengals have gone back and forth between fantasy relevant and not for us during the season, but they're the 11th-ranked defense over the last four games, averaging 8.3 points per game. They're 5th in the NFL in sacks and 13th in turnover rate, so they've been a pretty well-rounded defense all year long. Considering their first two postseason matchups are against offenses that are inside the top-10 in terms of giving up the MOST fantasy points to opposing defenses, we have to like that schedule. I can see Cincinnati being a back-half of the top-10 DST in both of the first two weeks, which could make them a strong pairing with a team that has a good Week 17 schedule since you're absolutely not playing them against the Chiefs.
In years past, we used the Chiefs defense as a prime example of how you can let up a lot of points and still remain a good fantasy unit. The Chiefs would go up big, forcing the opponent to pass to keep up, which led to interceptions, sacks, and sometimes even defensive touchdowns. Then all of that disappeared at the start of this season, but the Chiefs have come roaring back. They are the 4th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 12.5 points per game. They're also the 4th-ranked defense since Week 7 at 9.8 points per game, if we want a bigger sample size, and they'd be much higher on this list if they didn't have some tough matchups ahead. None of these games will make the Chiefs a must-bench defense, but the Chargers, Steelers, and Bengals are all offenses that can put up big point totals. They can also let up lots of sacks and go into a shell. It will be a bit risky to play the Chiefs in those weeks, but with their recent performance, I think you can trust them.
The Packers' defense has looked much better over the last few weeks, ranking as the 9th-best fantasy defense over their last four games. They are also set to get star cornerback Jaire Alexander back, which will give this secondary a huge boost. The Packers find themselves in tier two because of their first two weeks. Baltimore now leads the league in sacks allowed and Cleveland has fallen on hard times with Baker Mayfield and Kareem Hunt both playing through injuries. Minnesota in the championship game is a tough test, and I'd be looking elsewhere for that, but I think the Packers are a really solid play in the other two weeks.
Much like the Packers, the Broncos have been a sturdy but not extraordinary defense. They rank 13th over their last four games, averaging 8.0 points per game. That's not winning you weeks, but it's also nothing to turn your nose up at. Considering they have no really difficult matchups the rest of the way, they find themselves bringing up the rear of tier two. The Bengals have been very giving as a fantasy offense of late, and the Raiders appear completely out of whack after dealing with multiple off-field distractions, so I think the Broncos are a safe but un-sexy playoff defense.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for the Playoffs
This is a big tier because so many of these defenses are just coin flips at this point. All of these teams have been useful defenses at some point in time this season but none have been overly consistent or have the best schedule for the playoffs.
The Vikings and Cardinals are similar to me right now. They have both been elite for long stretches of this year, but they just suffered massive injuries to elite defensive ends with J.J. Watt for the Cardinals and Danielle Hunter for the Vikings both being ruled out for the season. Now, the teams may prove capable of weathering that storm, but so far they have struggled to get back into the elite tier with the Cardinals rankings 12th and Vikings ranking 17th over the last month. In another stroke of similarity, they both only seem really startable during the first week of the playoffs, but then the matchups get much more difficult after that, with the Cardinals' final two matchups being borderline unplayable with so much on the line in fantasy.
We tend to think of the Rams as an elite defensive unit, and they have the big-name stars to command our attention, but the truth is that the performance just hasn't been there. Over the last month, the Rams are the 26th-ranked defense, averaging only 4.5 fantasy points per contest. That includes games against the Jaguars, 49ers, and Titans, as well as a showdown with the Packers. That's not a ridiculously hard schedule. Now, neither is their playoff schedule with a scuffling Seahawks team in Week 15 and a beatable Ravens offense in Week 17; however, the Vikings in Week 16 pose a real challenge and the Rams are no longer a set-it-and-forget-it option.
The Chargers' defensive dominance against the Bengals is fresh in everybody's mind, but this has been an inconsistent unit all season long. They're 6th in pressure rate, 17th in sacks, 12th in turnover rate, and a really poor 28th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score. This means that, despite the talent that they have on defense, and the smackdown they put on the Bengals, they are still just the 16th-ranked defense over the last month. We love the schedule for them in the final two weeks of the playoffs, and they could be a semi-final winning option against the Texans, but this is a defense that put up a damagingly low score against the Chiefs and also fail to show up against the Broncos.
Some people may be shocked to see the Colts in this tier since they are the 6th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 11 points per game, but I urge people to dig into the schedule a little bit more. Since the Colts have hit their stride and started playing great football and putting up big fantasy defense totals, they have played the Titans, Jets, Jaguars, and Texans. They weren't able to muster anything against the Bucs; however, they were able to put up a good total against the Bills, who were playing without three of their starting offensive lineman. Maybe I'm being too hard on the Colts because they are an elite turnover team, but they get next to no pressure on the quarterback and I have to wonder if the turnovers have really been boosted by playing poor and injured offenses. As a result, I really just can't move them above these other teams.
The Saints were a trendy defense about a month ago, but they are the 27th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 3.5 points per game. Now, three of those games were against the Cowboys, Bills, and Eagles, who are among the best offenses at limiting fantasy points to opposing defenses, so we need to take that into consideration. Yet, this is still a middle-of-the-road defense that is 15th in turnover rate, 16th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score, and 18th in pressure rate. They have a great matchup in the finals against the Panthers, but I wouldn't play them against Tampa Bay and don't think they're a slamdunk against Miami either.
The Seahawks are another defense that has been running hot and cold and ranks 19th over the last month, averaging 5.8 points per game. The pass rush and turnovers haven't really been there for them all year, but they have been growing increasingly stingy as the season has gone on, allowing only 17 points to Green Bay, 23 to Arizona, and 23 to San Francisco. Now, the Cardinals and 49ers were both not at full strength, so perhaps it's a mirage, but the Seahawks schedule is also pretty easy at the end of the playoffs. I'd be putting them on my bench to see if their recent uptick in performance keeps up and then deploy them, with trepidation of course, in two easy matchups.
The Steelers have the talent to put up top-tier production, but they are the 24th-ranked defense over the last month and only really have one playable matchup on their schedule. There's a case to be made that you can play them against the Browns, but I don't really trust this defense to stop Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and I'm certainly not playing the Steelers against the Chiefs with the way both teams are playing right now.
The Browns only have one good matchup the rest of the way, plus they have their bye still to come, so it's hard to get overly excited about them, especially after the way they looked last week against the Patriots. I just can't see being overly confident in starting them after this week. I also came into this exercise hoping the Saints and Packers would be defenses you could hold the rest of the way, but the matchups are too difficult for that. The Packers are not startable for me over the next two weeks, nor in the fantasy championship, while New Orleans has a brutal four games over the next five. New Orleans is a defense I think you can hold on your bench because their matchups are either cake-walks or unplayable ones, so they are the perfect defense to pair with another to help you through the end of the season.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for the Playoffs
These defenses are all risky but playable in certain matchups, so keep an eye on mixing and matching them with some of the defenses in the top tiers if you're in a deep league or a league where people hoard defenses.
We have been riding the Panthers for most of the season, and I truly believe they are a strong defense, but without Christian McCaffrey, the offense has been putrid and continuous to put the defense in terrible situations. As a result, the Panthers are the 14th-ranked defense over the last month and face a pretty brutal playoff schedule. I can't trust them against the Bills or Bucs and would consider them a back-half of the top-10 options against the Saints.
The Ravens are such an enigma to me, ranking 15th currently for me on the season. As I said in my rankings for Week 11: "They are 1st in pressure rate, 20th in sacks, 13th in QB hurry rate, 8th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score, and 27th in turnover rate. One week the pass rush carries them and they look great, and then the next week, their secondary lets them down and they look average." They have some real problems in the secondary which could be a problem in games against Green Bay, Cincinnati, and the Rams in the weeks ahead. Based on current metrics, they only get one plus matchup the rest of the way, which makes them startable and a fringe "hold" as a defense but not a defense I'm as confident in as the tier above.
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for the Playoffs
I wouldn't recommend playing any of these defenses if you have a choice.
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