January 23, 2021

Houston Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel is coming off his worst season as a big leaguer, posting a pitiful .232/.274/.384 triple slash along with a 79 wRC+ in 230 PA. Nonetheless, Houston elected to bring him back on a one-year deal and give him the opportunity to bounce back as the starting first baseman. Despite a poor 2020 showing, there's reason to believe a rebound is possible for Gurriel. His .232 BA is primarily the result of hard luck, as Gurriel's .235 BABIP is by far the lowest of his career. His strikeout rate remained superb at 11.7% despite his age, and his .268 xBA isn't too far off his career .277 xBA. His 89.3 MPH average exit velocity and 13.9-degree average launch angle are both on par with his career marks as well. Gurriel will likely never reach the power numbers he saw in 2019 again, as his 31 homers and .243 ISO look like the product of a juiced ball and a 15.6% HR/FB ratio, which is nearly double his career HR/FB ratio outside of 2019. First base isn't as loaded with sluggers as it once was, and Gurriel offers late round stability at the position, something especially valuable in deep leagues and AL-Only leagues. He doesn't offer the same ceiling as the youngsters going around him such as Bobby Dalbec or Andrew Vaughn, but Gurriel's floor is much higher. He's a quiet bounce back candidate that could help with batting average and RBI.--Elliott Baas