2 years agoNewly signed San Diego Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts has been a premier hitter during his time in the big leagues. He's hit .292 over 10 seasons and was better in 2022, hitting .307. Bogaerts hasn't had a strikeout rate above 18.7% since 2014 and put the ball in play more than 35% of his peers this year. However, high BABIPs have played a big part in his batting averages. The 30-year-old's .336 career BABIP is awfully inflated and fueled by the offense-happy venue of Fenway Park, hiding his career .265 xBA. Bogaerts' power doesn't help if his average falls, as he's smashed just 20 HRs per 162 games over his 10 seasons. His barrel rate has never been greater than 9.8%, and he owns just a career 6.2% mark, along with a 6.5% rate from '22. Bogaerts can hit the ball in the air enough but is only a power threat when pulling fly balls significantly more than his career mark of 24.6%. A move to Petco Park, which posted a 95-home run factor for right-handers over the past three seasons, will only make it more of a challenge for the long-time Red Sox. And seeing that Bogaerts has only swiped 33 bags from 2018-2022, the only categories fantasy managers can really rely on him for is RBI and runs, considering he'll be in the middle of a strong Padres lineup. His ADP of 88 is an overpay, and there are plenty of quality shortstops going much later, like Willy Adames (101 ADP) and Carlos Correa (125 ADP).--Spencer Seguin