February 3, 2020

Will Smith had another excellent season out of the bullpen in 2019, successfully converting 34 of 38 save opportunities in his first full season as the closer for the Giants. Digging beneath the surface of Smith's numbers reveals two very intriguing statistics: a career-best 37.4 K% and a career-worst 20.4 HR/FB%. These performance extremes were not simply a reflection of league trends, but instead can be understood by recognizing a drastic change in his pitch-mix from 2018 to 2019. By increasing the use of his devastating slider from 36% to 43.6% and cutting his curveball usage from 16.9% to a career-low 7.8%, Smith appears to have become harder to hit but easier to predict. All that said, there is no good reason to think that Smith will be anything other than excellent in Atlanta in 2020. The only real question is whether or not he will get enough save chances to make drafting him at his current ADP of ~134 a smart move. Unfortunately, the only thing we can say with certainty is that the surplus of capable arms in the Atlanta bullpen will undoubtedly lead to more favorable matchups for Smith this season. This should be great for Smith's HR/FB%, but it could also hack into his save opportunities, making it hard to justify taking him in the top 150 of your draft. Just don't forget about him entirely as he is the best reliever in the Atlanta bullpen and talent tends to win out in the end, especially in high-leverage situations.--SheffieldINC