January 23, 2018

Whit Merrifield led the American League in stolen bases last year. Ignoring how much of a surprise it is that someone led a league with just 34 stolen bases (the fewest by a league leader since 1962), it’s still a huge surprise to many that Merrifield was quite that good on the basepaths. Add in the 19 home runs and .288 average, and Merrifield was a bona fide stud in the middle infield in 2017. Can the 29-year-old repeat the performance in 2018? It’s unlikely, but even the lesser version probably won’t be a huge disappointment. First, Merrifield’s speed is real. In 2016, he stole 28 bases between Triple-A and the majors. In 2015, he stole 32 in Triple-A. He’s not going to challenge Billy Hamilton, but expect somewhere between 25 and 35 SBs from him. The batting average is also likely to be pretty strong as he’s averaged .265 or better for the last five years. As for his power, that’s the most likely part to see a correction. His HR/FB rate spiked even though he hit fewer balls hard than in the past, and in the three prior seasons, he only hit 18 home runs combined. 10 to 12 home runs is a much more plausible prediction. While a second baseman going 10/28/.275 is still a valuable asset on almost any team, he’s not worth the 6th round price tag he’s currently drawing, especially since the loss of all of KC’s offense is going to hurt his runs and RBIs even more. Think more like the 9th or 10th round.--Billy Stonick - RotoBaller