RADIO
Triston McKenzie 2023 Outlook: Shiny Surface Stats Obscure Several Red Flags
2 years agoTriston McKenzie didn't excite fantasy managers with his 11-11 record last season, but his 2.96 ERA over 191⅓ IP certainly turned heads. Unfortunately, betting on a repeat would be unwise. His ERA estimators were substantially higher with a 3.77 xFIP and 3.54 xERA, and many projection systems peg him in the 4.10 range for 2023. His .237 BABIP against is probably unsustainable, as his .222 xBA was 21 points higher than his .201 batting average against. His .397 xSLG was too high to support any kind of sustainable contact management ability, and his 92.7 mph fastball isn't that impressive in this age of velocity. McKenzie generates strikeouts at a 25.6% clip thanks to a great curve (22.4 SwStr%, 43.4% chase rate), but it's only his third pitch behind his heater and a less impressive slider (14 SwStr%, 31.1% chase). The Guardians aren't exactly an offensive powerhouse, so McKenzie might not earn many wins even with high innings totals. You should bake substantial regression into your projection, and that likely means passing at his current ADP of 95.82.
