January 30, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz enters the 2024 season as the ultimate unknown for fantasy baseball managers. On one hand, we haven't seen the young phenom pitch since July of 2022, as Tommy John Surgery sidelined him for the entire 2023 season. On the other hand, Baz is a lights-out flamethrower with tantalizing upside that's impossible to ignore. In 40 innings from 2021 to 2022, Baz struck out 48 batters thanks to a 29% K-rate and an eye-popping 14.2% swinging-strike rate at the MLB level. His numbers in the minors were even more impressive. In 2021, Baz struck out 40% of batters in Double-A before he whiffed 64 batters in 46 innings while posting an elite 37% K-rate in Triple-A. When healthy, Baz will generate tons of whiffs and post ace-like strikeout numbers. The downside is Baz has never thrown more than 92 innings in a season and given his recent injuries, expect the Rays to be ultra-cautious with the 24-year-old prospect. On a per-inning basis, Baz can be dominant and he's an attractive fantasy option when healthy. Those that use a top-200 draft pick on him simply need to know he won't pitch deep into games, he will have starts skipped, and it'll be shocking if he throws more than 100-120 innings in 2024, if that. Each fantasy manager will need to assess their own risk tolerance when deciding to roll the dice on Baz.--Mike Schwarzenbach - RotoBaller