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Patrick Corbin 2021 Player Outlook: Plenty Of Room To Profit On Empty Bandwagon
Washington Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin had a phenomenal performance in 2019, but 65 innings in 2020 is causing everyone to seek life jackets. Before they jump off the ship, you can hear them screaming "Velocity is dropping," as it dropped two mph from the second half of 2019. Corbin finished the year with a 4.17 FIP, but history and bad luck indicate a bounce-back could be in the future. This isn't the first time his velocity sat near 90.2 mph in the first half of the season (90.4 mph in 2018 and 91 mph in 2019). Though he got hitters to chase at his routine rate (37.8%), Corbin didn't get his normal level of strikeouts as batters made more contact than normal leading to a .362 BABIP. His slider, for example, incited the same chase frequency (46%), but it didn't have the expected dominating results. Batters were able to make 18% more contact outside the zone (47%) than in 2019. Many players are getting a mulligan for 2020, but Corbin's current ADP of 149 show he's not getting similar treatment. Though he'll be 32 years old during the 2021 season, Corbin has shown he can improve his velocity during the season. It is not much of a risk to see if he can do it again, considering where he's currently being drafted.
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