3 months agoRory McIlroy continues to crush the ball off the tee, but that's been the only consistent part of his game through two events. After a rough start at Pebble Beach, McIlroy improved at Genesis, but as the clear favorite another top 25 isn't going to be enough. McIlroy used to play this event often with a win and T2, but those were a decade ago. With such a huge price tag on DraftKings ($12,200), it's a must-win week and his play just hasn't been there through two starts this season.
--Rob RoseSource: PGATOUR.com
3 months agoIn his 41 career starts on the PGA Tour, Seonghyeon Kim has flirted with his first win on two occasions but has been largely characterized by steady, if unspectacular all-around play. Kim's driver-heavy playstyle should suit the nearly 7,500 yards on tap at Vidanta Vallarta this week, and the 25-year-old Korean already acquainted himself quite well with the Paspalum surfaces here last season: gaining a combined 3.9 shots on and around the greens in a 24th place finish. Kim's sub-standard iron play will continue to cap his week-to-week ceiling (average loss of 1.8 strokes on approach over his last 5 starts), but the driving/short-game combination should be more than enough to carry on his recent run of 5/6 made cuts.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoAlthough his 2023 season was largely compromised by wrist and elbow injuries, Jhonattan Vegas looked to be back to his old self two weeks ago at the WM Phoenix Open. The 7.2 shots he gained with his ball-striking were good enough to rank sixth in the star-studded field, and this week in Mexico, Vegas will be met with a golf course that should be well suited for his power game. The 39-year-old Venezuelan still rates out as one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour, and has proven on many occasions that he's capable of dismantling some of the toughest courses on the schedule with his ball striking. His affinity for paspalum surfaces should also be noted, as he's recorded five top 10s at the likes of Puerto Rico, Mayakoba, and Corales over the last few seasons. Given the sample sizes we're dealing with, it's fair to call into question the floor Vegas projects to provide week to week, but in this beleaguered field, he also possesses one of the higher upside cases on these friendly confines.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoJustin Suh's last 15 months on the PGA Tour have been largely characterized by runs in and out of form. He strung together back-to-back top 10s at the ZOZO and World Wide Technology Championships last fall, before recording finishes of 64th, MC, MC, and 77th over his next four starts. Much of his week-to-week inconsistency can be attributed to his overreliance on his putter, which, although is ranked among the top on the PGA Tour, oftentimes isn't enough to carry his sub-par game from tee to green. Suh ranks 112th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 50 rounds and 139th Around the Greens. Until these deficiencies are sorted out, he remains an untrustworthy option week-to-week on the PGA Tour.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3
months
agoOutside
of
the
obvious,
can't-miss
entities
like
Will
Zalatoris,
Scottie
Scheffler,
or
Sungjae
Im,
it's
often
difficult
to
discern
which
of
the
new
Korn
Ferry
graduates
is
best
set
for
success
at
the
highest
level.
But
while
Jake
Knapp
didn't
come
onto
the
big
stage
with
the
greatest
read more...
3 months agoIn his third full season on the PGA Tour, Brandon Wu has established himself as a solid all-around entity. He's made 10 of his last 12 cuts and ranked right around Tour average in the four strokes gained metrics. In two career starts around Vidanta Vallarta, however, Wu has proven himself as a different force entirely: recording finishes of 2nd and 3rd and gaining a combined 14.4 shots on these paspalum greens. It's difficult to say why a California kid who attended boarding school in Massachusetts has developed this sort of extreme affinity for this tropical grass type, but with two top finishes here already under his belt, plus an additional 3rd and 7th place finish at Cocoa Beach (the host of the Puerto Rico Open that also features paspalum greens), it's difficult to project anything less than another stellar performance this week.
--Ian McNeill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoAlex Smalley found his groove in June and July of 2023, but he's had a tough time regaining that form so far in 2024. The 27-year-old has lost strokes in at least three categories in each of his last three events, and there don't seem to be any signs of a bounce back coming this week. Smalley has played at Vidanta twice in his career with two very different results. Most recently, the New York native missed the cut and lost strokes in every category. While the approach game could spike at any moment and lead to a renaissance for the young pro, odds are Smalley won't be worth backing this week at the Mexico Open.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoNate Lashley has missed the cut in three of his four 2024 appearances thus far, but his one made cut resulted in a T3 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. Some might see a top-five finish and mistake it for actionable upside, but the reality is that the 41-year-old catapulted up the leaderboard thanks to 5.9 strokes gained putting at Torrey Pines. The Nebraska native hadn't reached that number since May of 2022, so it's not likely we see such a spike again. The rest of Lashley's game is in a rough place, so despite a good showing at the Mexico Open in 2022, it's safe to stay away from the aging veteran.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoA mediocre showing at the Mexico Open last year placed Maverick McNealy at T60 in his debut in the midst of his lowest point of the 2023 season. This year, the 28-year-old has already started to trend upwards in all areas of his game, recently gaining 9.2 total strokes en route to a T6 finish at the Phoenix Open. The California native had lost strokes with his irons in four straight events to start 2024 before his Waste Management spark, but that upside is enough to make DFS managers interested at a valuable $8,100 price tag on DraftKings. With a slice of course familiarity and numbers trending in the right direction, McNealy may be set up to find some success among a relatively week field this week.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoMichael Kim has made seven of his last eight cuts leading into the Mexico Open. He has not lost strokes on approach in a measured start during that stretch. He marks third in the field over the past 24 rounds in par four scoring between 450-500 yards, a range which seven of the nine par four's this week fall into. While Kim may not have win equity, he seems to have a pretty high floor.
--Matt Miller - RotoBallerSource: Fantasy National
3 months agoDavis Thompson heads to Vidanta for his first-ever Mexico Open this week, and he's coming off his best iron performance on tour a couple of weeks ago at the Phoenix Open, where he gained 4.2 strokes on approach. The 24-year-old has a couple of top-10 finishes in his career, but a recent jump in his approach game, combined with some putting spikes so far in 2024, has some of the sharper golf minds excited about the Georgia native. It's been the off-the-tee game that's held Thompson back early this season, but past trends indicate those woes will come to pass, which could lead to some more top-10s for the youngster if he can keep his putter and irons in a good place in 2024.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoCameron Champ has missed four straight cuts to start 2024 and hasn't really shown any sign of life since mid-October. That said, Champ has an incredible track record at this event. He finished 8th here last year and 6th back in 2022. Champ's strong off the tee game should be a huge advantage this week. He is a clear boom or bust option, but there's no doubt he likes this course.
--Matt Miller - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoDuring his best run of 2023, Aaron Rai was a ball-striking machine with his irons, and he was able to gain a stroke or two in all other areas en route to a few strong Sunday finishes. However, the 28-year-old has shown nothing of the sort in 2024, losing strokes on approach in all but one of his four events thus far. The Englishman is struggling in all facets of his game right now, and with the lack of firepower in the Mexico Open, he still finds himself priced in the mid-$8k range on DraftKings. Coming off a missed cut in 2023, Rai is an easy fade for DFS managers and golf bettors alike.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
3 months agoThrough four events this season, Thomas Detry has spent some time near the top of leaderboards but hasn't come through with a win. Detry's statistics show he gains the most strokes with his driver (No. 19) and putter (No. 13). However, he loses strokes on approach, which could be a problem this week. While length off the tee is valuable at Vidanta Vallarta, approach play is also important. If Detry can take advantage of his drives and set up birdie chances, this could be his breakthrough week with a win.
--Rob RoseSource: PGATOUR.com
3 months agoSince securing his tour card last season via the Korn Ferry Tour points list, Chris Gotterup has been hard-pressed to find any momentum yet in 2024. The longest man on tour (with an average drive of 317.8 yards) is a sight to behold with a driver in his hand. He's ranked modestly at 46th in strokes gained off the tee (0.300), but is ranked outside the top 100 in every other strokes-gained statistic. The former Sooner has certainly displayed his ability to compete at a high level, but the bright lights of the PGA Tour take some time to get used to. At $9,300 on FanDuel, he's a little too pricey to take the risk on this week.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
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