RADIO
Andrew Ball dives into the 2024 fantasy football outlook for the Denver Broncos' running game with four names vying for touches in a crowded backfield.
Tell me you have a crowded backfield without telling me you have a crowded backfield.
In 2023, Javonte Williams logged most of the snaps and touches for the Denver Broncos offense but was on the field for under 46 percent of the Broncos' plays. There were weeks when Samaje Perine or Jaleel McLaughlin played the most. Toward the tail end of the season, all of the backs established their roles and created a three-headed, albeit mostly inefficient, ground attack. Rookie fifth-round pick Audric Estime joins the mess this season.
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But to say there isn't fantasy football gold to be mined in the Rocky Mountains would be foolish. Head coach Sean Payton has an extensive history of propping up running backs and the Broncos will need to rely on the runners to help rookie quarterback Bo Nix develop into a potential long-term NFL starter. We'll need to sort some things out to determine which back (or backs) are worthy of a fantasy football draft-day selection.
2023 Season Review
Javonte Williams entered the 2023 season as the presumed starter, despite a brutal ending to his 2022 campaign. The former second-round pick tore his ACL and LCL in Week 4 of the 2022 season and there were legitimate doubts on whether he'd be ready to play when the new year began. Not only did he participate in training camp, but he was game-ready to the tune of 17 Week 1 touches.
As is the case with most players coming off of a major injury, on-field results were mixed at best. Supporters of the former Tar Heel were quick to blame the injury for Williams' 4.15 yards per carry average in the front half of the season. A popular theory was that Williams would explode in the latter portion of the campaign. That didn't happen. In fact, many of Williams' numbers worsened.
When the season came to a close, Williams averaged 3.5 true yards per carry, 0.65 fantasy points per opportunity, 1.7 yards after contact per attempt, and nearly -0.4 rush yards over expected. Unfortunately, these numbers aren't far off from his 2021 rookie campaign (2022 not included due to the injury).
| True YPC | FPTS Per Opp. | Y/CO Per Att. | RYOE Per Att. | |
| 2021 | 4.2 | 0.80 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 2023 | 3.5 | 0.65 | 1.7 | -0.4 |
Williams did finish eighth in the NFL in breakaway runs (12) with a healthy 5.5% breakaway run rate. While that's a good figure, it also paints how inefficient Williams was in his other carries. At least Williams is an above-average receiver, touting a 13% target share and 1.35 yards per route run (18th in the NFL) in 2023.
Fortunately and unfortunately (depending on how you look at it), Perine was an even better receiver by the numbers. The veteran, brought over from Cincinnati, led all running backs in yards per route (2.04) and caught 50 passes. McLaughlin was no slouch in the receiving department, either (1.72 yards per route run). Running backs being involved in the passing game has always been a staple of a Sean Payton offense.
McLaughlin, an undrafted rookie out of Youngstown State, is college football's all-time leading rusher. His size and pass protection concerns were big reasons he didn't hear his name called through seven rounds in 2023. Efficiency-wise, McLaughlin proved he belonged in the pros, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and 5.3 yards per touch (10th in the league).
Offseason Changes
The Denver offense is undergoing a major facelift as Sean Payton, now entering Year 2, continues to install his system. Part of that process involves bringing in the players he believes are the best fit. Although still cashing checks from the Broncos, Russell Wilson is now a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Denver's second-leading receiver, Jerry Jeudy, is also playing in the AFC North in 2024 as a Cleveland Brown.
Rookie first-round pick Bo Nix and second-year wideout Marvin Mims Jr. are the favorites to replace Wilson and Jeudy in the starting lineup. Journeyman backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham and first-round failure Zach Wilson will compete with Nix in training camp. Rookie fourth-round pick Troy Franklin, veteran acquisition Josh Reynolds, and Tim Patrick, who has missed the last two seasons with separate ACL and Achilles tears, will also be in the mix for playing time at the wide receiver position. The offensive line, other than center Lloyd Cushenberry III, remains intact.
Rookies Audric Estime and Blake Watson join the running back room for training camp, which could spell trouble for Perine. It's safe to assume that Williams and McLaughlin will be on the active roster for Week 1, so who secures the last spot (or two)?
Perine has one year remaining on his contract and the Broncos can easily eat the rest of that money and move on from the veteran if Estime shows enough in camp. Watson, the undrafted of the two, is more than likely a practice-squad candidate, but he has caught the eye of Payton. He was one of just two running backs to catch 50-plus passes in the college ranks last year.
"I’m not making the comparison, but when [the Saints] drafted Kamara, we saw that vision, but we didn’t realize the other things in the running game...But if you asked me the traits that attracted us to Blake, it was certainly that that we saw in the passing game, and you saw pretty good football IQ too.” - Sean Payton
Of note, Williams is now the only running back that was on the roster before Payton's arrival.
2024 Fantasy Football Expectations
Nearly 69% of Nix's pass attempts last year at Oregon were behind the line of scrimmage or a short-area throw. There are a lot of potential fantasy points in the Denver backfield, especially in PPR formats.
Weighted opportunities per game leaders, inside the last four minutes of each half
Or in other words: you'll probably want whichever RB catches passes for the Broncos this year pic.twitter.com/ZldwhpumcG
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) May 21, 2024
Payton, ideally, will also like to bring Nix along slowly in his rookie season by relying on the running game. Even without rookie quarterbacks, Payton's teams are almost always in the league's top half in run rate. Still, it's hard to imagine the Broncos becoming one of the better-scoring offenses in the league.
An unfortunate division of labor may prevent any of the group from making it out of the flex range. That is being baked into the ADP cost for Williams, McLaughlin, and Estime. If that's the final trio that makes the initial roster, Williams and McLaughlin will have more third-down opportunities. Estime is a capable receiver but profiles more as a short-down-and-distance runner.
For a mid-round running back selection, it could be worse. Williams has the best chance of the group to be the leader of the backfield. Other running backs in that range (Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Raheem Mostert) won't have that same opportunity share, barring an injury. How the training camp battle plays out will go a long way in determining which other Denver running back to target late in fantasy drafts.
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