January 7, 2023

Cleveland Guardians outfielder Oscar Gonzalez made his major-league debut this year on May 26, and over 91 games, he put up impressive numbers. He hit .296, went deep 11 times, and stole one base while recording 39 runs and 43 RBI. Gonzalez only struck out 19.6% of the time, even with a 37th-percentile whiff rate and 1st-percentile chase rate. That's mainly due to the rookie's extreme swing rates (59.3% swing percentage, 43.8% first-pitch swing rate), which, considering his 3.7% minor league walk rate, is a tendency he's had his whole professional career. Pitchers will exploit Gonzalez when they catch on. A higher average is attainable moving forward, but his 42nd-percentile average exit velocity and .345 BABIP from 2022 means fantasy managers shouldn't bank on him repeating a .296 mark. Despite Gonzalez's almost 20 home run pace, he posted a 13.4% HR/FB without a solid barrel rate (7.3%), as he pulled an unsustainable 30.5% of fly balls, explaining his 16 expected bombs. Additionally, the 24-year-old will find it difficult to be a serious home run contributor while running a high ground ball rate as he consistently did in the minors and his first year in the bigs (49.8%). Even Gonzalez's six home runs in the final 34 games of the season weren't met with many contacts or fly ball improvements. His sprint speed might look nice (88th percentile), but he's never been much of a base runner, stealing just 18 bags in 572 career minor-league games. Gonzalez will likely hit in the bottom part of the lineup and one that is weak behind him. Drafters are taking the Dominican around pick 177, but there's a crop of outfielders who can offer similar value with more of a guarantee around him.--Spencer Seguin