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Mitch Keller 2021 Player Outlook: Ongoing Development, Still Risky
4 years agoPittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller had a stat line that would make you dizzy. A simple glance at select statistics could have you heading in the wrong direction as it was an all-or-nothing year for him. Keller compiled a 2.91 ERA in five starts across 21 innings. However, he had extreme favorable luck (.104 BABIP) and a phenomenal strand rate (93%), neither of which are sustainable. One thing that will invoke a stank face is a -2.3% K-BB. Keller could not maintain his 2019 second half strikeout rate (30%), as his four-seamer and curveball were less effective at the task resulting in an 18% K rate. It was his walk rate (20.7%) that made things disproportionate. Admittedly, eight of his 18 walks came in his last start versus Cleveland. The Pirates rotation is in such a state that Keller will have a spot despite his ups and downs. If he can get his Barrel, walk, and Swinging Strike rates back to 2019 levels without any extreme luck and strand regression, Keller could be a serviceable streamer option. That is a lot of ifs. Even at an ADP of 311, Keller is a risky choice. It might be wise to let someone else deal with the rollercoaster of his development.
