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Michael Brantley 2021 Player Outlook: Unlikely to Live Up to Draft Day Price
4 years agoHouston Astros outfielder Michael Brantley rejoined the team on a two-year deal this offseason after slashing .300/.364/.476 across 46 games in 2020. It was a step down from his 2019 line of .311/.372/.503, and advanced metrics suggest that Brantley will be trending down even further this year. Brantley appears to have gotten lucky with his average last season as he posted a .336 BABIP (the second-highest mark of his career), and his .262 xBA adds more evidence to things not being what they seem at first glance. And when you see that his strikeout rate has increased while his exit velocity and sweet spot percentage have declined in back-to-back seasons now, and that he also posted career-worsts in swinging strike rate (5.5%) and contact rate (86.1%), things aren't looking good for his value in 2021. There are plenty of outfielders that can provide as much or more value that can be drafted later than Brantley's current ADP, so managers shouldn't look to target him until Round 20 or later.
