January 27, 2019

Max Kepler has been that odd player whose results do not seem to match the peripherals. Whereas some see him as a potential breakout, others view him as a saber darling whose performance is not properly predicted by the most common sabermetrics. 2018 provided a prime example. Kepler increased his walk rate from 8.6% to 11.7% and decreased his K-rate from 20.1% to 15.7%. He increased his fly-ball rate by nearly seven percent and his hard-hit rate by over four percent. Without looking at the results, one would have expected a major breakout in 2018 relative to 2017. However, the results did not bear that out. In 2017, he had a 5x5 line of .243/19/67/69/6. In 2018, it was .224/20/80/58/4. Yes, the .040 decrease in BABIP from .276 to .236 hurt as did the decline in HR/FB rate to 9.9%, but the question is whether that tells the whole story. That uncertainty is why, despite these peripherals, Kepler is being drafted around 270th, just about where RotoBaller's rankers have him pegged. I believe that ranking is likely appropriate for a player who could produce another unrosterable line as he did in 2018. However, with a boost in BABIP and HR/FB, he could bat .270 with nearly 30 homers. He is an interesting player with a significant range of outcomes, so if you don't have too much risk on your roster as you approach the end of your draft, Kepler's a fine sleeper target.--Jeff Kahntroff - RotoBaller