December 14, 2019

Lorenzo Cain followed up a career year in 2018 with one of his worst campaigns in 2019. The veteran slashed .260/.325/.417 with 11 homers and 18 steals (eight CS) in a season that concluded with his losing his customary leadoff spot to the since-traded Trent Grisham. Ageism is a prevalent trend among the fantasy community, so the down year is enough for many to just write the now 34-year old off. However, there may still be something here. He underachieved his career BABIP by 38 points (.339 vs. .301) despite nearly duplicating his 2018 contact quality. For example, Cain's average airborne exit velocity was 91.6 mph in 2019 versus 91 in 2018. His Statcast Sprint Speed declined more noticeably (27.8 ft./sec vs. 28.6), but he still had the athleticism required to be one of the finest fielders in the game (14 Outs Above Average, 3rd among all MLB outfielders). Baseball Savant's xStats say that Cain deserved a .290 batting average in 2019, a number that would easily make him an asset in the category. Getting on base more often could also help him reclaim his leadoff spot and steal more bases, though his days of being an absolute speed merchant are probably over. Still, .290 with 20 steals and a bunch of runs scored seem like a great investment on an NFBC ADP of 186.52. It's not sexy, but it's profit.--Rick Lucks - RotoBaller