January 22, 2020

Kyle Schwarber finally had the season we’ve been waiting for, but it was obscured by a .250 batting average and an underwhelming season from the Cubs. Fantasy owners should look past that and see the 38 home runs and 174 R+RBI as a new phase for Schwarber. The exit velocity and raw power have always been there, but in previous seasons, Schwarber struggled against lefties. As a result, he was often left on the bench or exploited by situational relievers late in the game. After managing an abysmal 68 wRC+ against lefties previously, Schwarber posted a functional 93 wRC+ against them in 2019. As a result, he saw 100 more plate appearances in 2019, and he was able to leverage that additional playing time into more production. Schwarber seems like he has been around forever, but he’s still only 27 years old, and he could repeat or even improve on his 2019 performance. If he does that, he’ll be well worth his 149 ADP. Schwarber’s batted-ball data shows a player who was measurably better in every facet: he posted more barrels (55), a better xBA (.267), and a higher xSLG (.553). In fact, both Steamer and Depth Charts expect Schwarber to be more valuable in 2020. Given the systems’ tendency to regress players towards the mean, that gives fantasy owners plenty of reason to draft Schwarber optimistically. Expect another season with a .250 batting average, more than 30 homers, 85 R, 85 RBI, and a few steals thrown in.--David Emerick