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Kevin Gausman 2022 Player Outlook: Underrated Value After Poor Second Half
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman showed this past season that his 2020 breakout wasn't a fluke. After reworking his splitter two years ago, he increased its usage, and it did him wonders once again after it generated a 45.9 Whiff% and .191 xwOBA. That helped the 31-year-old to a 14-6 record, 2.81 ERA, 29.3 K%, and 1.04 WHIP in 192 IP. However, it was a tale of two halves for the right-hander, posting a 4.42 ERA after the All-Star break. Much of that was bad luck, though, when considering his inflated second half .352 BABIP and 17.1 HR/FB. His 31 CSW% and 81st percentile Whiff% are good indicators that he has the stuff to keep his K-rate up around 29%. Still, he should regress a bit in 2022. For one thing, his 3.57 xERA was more than 70 points higher than his actual ERA, and a move to the hitter-friendly AL East will make it harder for Gausman to maintain a 0.94 HR/9. Despite this, he'll have a top offense behind him, will rack of north of 180 innings if healthy, and should post a competent WHIP and ERA in 2022. His ADP of 54 offers good value, 13 picks after Aaron Nola, who should provide similar numbers.
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