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Kevin Gausman 2019 Outlook: Don't Pay Up For This Overvalued Commodity
6 years agoKevin Gausman improved upon his trade to Atlanta, particularly his ERA, however, his strikeout rate actually declined. He significantly limited the number of homers he allowed, but his hard-hit percentage and batted-ball profile were virtually unchanged from his time on the Orioles. Because Gausman has an ERA over one point lower in the second half than in the first half throughout his career, it is reasonable to question whether the “improvement” was simply his normal second-half surge or a result of something the Braves did or taught. Nevertheless, his change from Camden Yards to the NL East, and his raw talent that led to him being a top-five draft pick, makes him a worthy gamble at the right price. However, his ADP of 184 seems a touch high. Yes, he could post an ERA in the low to mid 3s, but his strikeouts have dipped to under eight per nine innings, which is well below average for a fantasy starter, and he has yet to show a full season of a serviceable WHIP. Even in his Atlanta success, he only struck out 6.6 batters per nine innings and his FIP was merely 3.78 despite a reduced HR rate. He finished the year with a 3.92 ERA, 10-11 record, and 148 Ks in 183.2 innings, nothing to right home about.
