January 30, 2020

Last season was a tumultuous one for Pirates reliever Keone Kela. Sidelined at the beginning of the year with shoulder inflammation and later suspended 10 games for his involvement in one of the most memorable brawls in recent history, Kela finished the 2019 campaign in blistering fashion by allowing just one earned run in his final 18 appearances. Unfortunately, Kela's K% dropped under 30% for the first time since his debut in 2015 and his ERA (2.12) outperformed his FIP (3.52) by a whopping 1.4 runs thanks to an unsustainably low BABIP of .225 and incredibly high LOB rate of 89.6%. On top of those concerning numbers, Kela drastically lowered his fastball usage last season and saw a drop in velocity for both his curveball (83.1 to 81.9) and fastball (96.8 to 96.3). A lot of that drop in velocity can be linked to his early-season injury, but the changes in his pitch mix coupled with a downturn in effectiveness offer more than enough yellow flags to advise against treating Kela as a high end closer this season. That said, if the injury is truly in the rear-view mirror then Kela should put together another year with elite strikeout totals and a sub 3.00 ERA. Kela's ADP hovers around 230 and that seems a completely appropriate place to take him this season, especially if he is your third option for saves. Keone has been tabbed as the closer for Pittsburgh this season, but proceed with caution and get some backup options on your roster to protect against a potentially negative outcome.--SheffieldINC