11 months agoIn 2023, Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve returned in mid-May from a broken arm he suffered after being hit by a pitch in the World Baseball Classic. He slashed .311/.393/.522 with 17 home runs and 14 stolen bases over 90 games. Altuve also tied his career-high with a 10.8% walk rate, boosting his run and stolen base opportunities. However, his numbers under the hood suggest the batting average and slugging percentage are due for a decline in 2024. Altuve struck out 17.3% of the time last season, which is still a solid number but was a career-high. His groundball rate shot up seven percentage points to over 48%, the highest since his abysmal 2020 campaign. Add it all up: his expected batting average (according to Fangraphs) was .248, and his expected slugging was .424, almost 100 points lower. A .348 batting average on balls in play skewed his production, and that number should drop to more around the league average in 2024 (.297), especially as Altuve plays in his age-34 season. As one of the best contact-makers in a strong offense, Altuve can still be counted on for at least 15 home runs, 100 runs, and 15 stolen bases, but just extrapolating his 2023 numbers over a full season will surely let fantasy managers down at his current ADP around pick 34 in NFBC drafts.--Ryan Kirksey - RotoBaller