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Jordan Hicks 2021 Fantasy Outlook: Potential For Late-Round Saves If Healthy
4 years agoSt. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Jordan Hicks enters the 2021 season as the Cardinals closer, and despite having all the talent to successfully fill the role, there remains a big question mark around his health. Hicks succeeded in the role in 2019 by converting 14 of his 15 save opportunities with a 3.14 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 28 2/3 innings (29 appearances). That ERA is supported by a 3.07 xFIP and 3.25 SIERA. Hicks' 2019 season ended in June after having Tommy John surgery, which resulted in him missing all of 2020. Hicks came to prominence after making his debut in 2018 and threw the fastest recorded pitch in history at the time, as well as having a sinker averaging over 100 mph over the last two years. That extreme velocity hasn't quite translated into a high strikeout rate, though, as his 2019 28.2% strikeout rate would have only ranked him 48th among qualified relievers. The concern for Hicks is his walk rate, which he actually lowered to 10.0% in 2019 (down from 13.3%). His career 12.5% walk rate is 11th-worst of all 108 relievers who threw 100-plus innings between 2018-2019. Pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery generally struggle with their control when they return, so that walk rate could lead to struggles. For a Cardinals team looking to contend in 2021, his leash might not be long enough to work through those problems. He's pitched just 1 2/3 innings in Grapefruit League play so far to the tune of a 5.40 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, and 2:3 K/BB ratio with one hit batter. It's way too small of a sample to judge him on as his health is the most important factor right now. He's suffered no setbacks and looks to be 100% healthy as the regular season approaches. The Cards can still use Giovanny Gallegos as the closer to start the year, especially if Hicks is still working out the kinks. Hicks' 238 ADP does offer value, even though it's been jumping up over the last week. If he can start the season effectively and eventually earn that full time closer role then a 30-save season isn't beyond the realm of possibilities.
