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John Means 2020 Outlook: First Half of 2019 Looks Like a Fluke
5 years agoFor Means, the 2019 season was a tale of two halves on the surface. He recorded a 2.50 ERA in 18 appearances (14 starts) prior to the All-Star break, then a 4.85 ERA in 13 starts after the break. The skills were actually pretty pedestrian all season for Means, and some good fortune (.252 BABIP, 81.1% LOB%) fueled his first-half success. During that time, he posted a 5.20 xFIP and 20.6% K%, and those marks slipped to 5.79 and 17.2%, respectively, in the second half of the season. Means did do a nice job of suppressing hard contact, ranking in the 90th percentile in Hard Hit % allowed, per Baseball Savant. His 9.9% home run per fly ball rate was fourth lowest among all starting pitchers, which, even given the low Hard Hit %, probably isn't sustainable. Given his 50 percent fly ball rate, hitter-friendly home park, and tough division, Means will probably have a hard time keeping the home runs in check. He is likely to post an ERA north of 4.50 in 2020, and won't be a great source of wins or strikeouts, either. Means is currently going off the board late in NFBC drafts at pick 387, but even there, he's unlikely to return a profit. Look elsewhere for your late-round fliers.
