January 27, 2023

Minnesota Twins starter Joe Ryan built on his 2021 rookie season and anchored the club's rotation this year, pitching to a 3.55 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with a 25% strikeout rate and 13 victories across 27 starts. And after posting a 3.43 FIP with a 30% strikeout rate the year prior, it seems he is on his way to becoming a fantasy ace. But Ryan doesn't have the stuff that some would expect. His fastball averaged just 92 MPH this season with a 38th-percentile spin rate, which he threw 60% of the time. Ryan's slider has poor movement in both directions, while his changeup and curveball generated whiffs at just an 18.5% and 18.6% rate, respectively. Because of this, the 26-year-old doesn't miss too many bats (25.3% career whiff rate) nor gets many chases (28.1% career chase rate). Ryan throws a lot of strikes, pounding the zone at a 53% mark over his two seasons. But he walks his share of opponents (7.8% in 2022), and it could become a problem if he's not careful in the strike zone. Ryan already gives up a lot of barrels, including an 8.6% rate this year, and his 3.99 FIP suggests his ERA could easily inflate above 4.00. With questionable strikeout numbers going forward, fantasy managers don't have much to fall back on if the former seventh-rounder regresses, except maybe double-digit wins. Managers view Ryan as a front-of-the-rotation arm, as he owns a 147 ADP, but there's a good chance he finishes below his price tag.--Spencer Seguin