January 16, 2019

The New York Mets continued to add veterans to their lineup with the addition of second baseman Jed Lowrie. The switch hitter had a career year in 2018 where he clubbed 23 HR with 78 R, 99 RBI and a .267 AVG. The HR and RBI were both career-highs and a dramatic rise from his previous bests (16 HR in 2012 and 75 RBI in 2013). At age 34, it was a bit odd to see this large of a power spike, so we must look at a few factors. His 2018 43.4% FB% was lower than his career average (44.5%), and his 11.3% HR/FB is over 4% higher than his career average (7.2%). Lowrie has always been a doubles machine, but last year his doubles weren’t as abundant, and his big flies rose due to his nine “just enough” home runs. Lowrie did hit the ball at a harder rate than usual, but the fly ball numbers and wall-scraping home runs suggest it was still a bit flukey that he saw this power surge. The Mets will likely put Lowrie and his .262 career average second in the order between Brandon Nimmo and Robinson Cano. Entering his age-35 season, a HR total in the mid-teens is fair to project, and his run total should take a bit of a decline. Moving from the A's top-three 2018 offense will also significantly drop his RBI total, and he hasn't stolen a base since 2015. At his ADP of 276, he's not a terrible value, but between his age, worse environment and career year, he'll likely provide mediocre numbers so a selection of a player with more upside would be a better choice.--Riley Mrack - RotoBaller