July 4, 2018

Currently trending as a low end RB2 and going in the middle of the fourth round, Jay Ajayi might be the single worst pick you can make at his current ADP. If I were given the choice of one fantasy relevant player in all of football to guarantee was not on any of my teams, I think it would be Jay Ajayi. What exactly is the fascination with this guy? Yeah he rushed for 200 yards a couple of times, but he is entirely dependent upon offensive line play. If you give him volume and a good offensive line, he will produce. Otherwise, Ajayi is inefficient and unsuccessful compared to leave average as evidenced by his -1.8% success rate over average and -18.5 production premium. He could be a lesser version of Melvin Gordon if he was used the same way - but he won't be. Doug Pederson uses at least three RBs in his rotation, sometimes even four. Ajayi is a two down back that doesn't catch passes and might, but is no lock, to handle goal line carries. He finished outside the top 30 in ppr last season and I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where he exceeds that this season. If Ajayi ends up with a 50% or greater opportunity share, then he has a good shot at low end RB2 value. I expect him to touch the ball less than that, making him difficult to trust as anything more than an RB3. There are over a dozen running backs going after him that will outproduce him in 2018. Pass on Ajayi.--Jason Katz