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Javier Baez 2023 Player Outlook: A Bad First Season In Detroit An Indication Of Things To Come
2 years agoDetroit Tigers shortstop Javier Baez had his worst full season in 2022, slashing .238/.278/.393 with 17 HRs, 64 runs, and 64 RBI. Although he improved his strikeout rate by 8.7% (24.9%) from a year ago, he did himself no favors by chasing pitches at an alarming 47.5% rate (1st percentile) and swung at just 68.0% of pitches in the zone compared to his career mark of 72.9%. Baez wasn't hitting the ball hard either, posting an 8.0% barrel rate (52nd-percentile), 87.9 MPH average exit velocity (31st-percentile), and a .378 xSLG, with a move to Comerica Park only making things worse. The 30-year-old has lived off of high BABIPs throughout his time in the big leagues (career .328 BABIP), but it regressed to a more average .292 in 2022. Also, Baez's HR/FB came down to Earth with a 12.3% mark which barely compares to his career rate of 19.5%. He was still running a bit, swiping nine bases, but was nowhere close to the 18 he stole in '21, and he posted his worst sprint speed to date (66th percentile). Baez has a chance to bounce back if luck is on his side again, but fantasy managers shouldn't count on that. Steamer is penning him for a .241 average, 22 home runs, 10 stolen bases, 73 RBI, and 71 runs next season, which is not worth his 160 ADP.
