J.D. Martinez 2022 Player Outlook: A Mid-Round Slugger Who's Easy To Trust In 2022
3 years agoMartinez bounced back last year after a disappointing 2020 season, blasting 28 bombs along with a .286/.349/.518 triple slash in 634 trips to the plate. While the numbers were strong by an objective measure, they were a notch below the MVP-caliber production we saw from him between 2017-2019, where Martinez put up an otherworldly 1.007 OPS, .306 ISO, and 124 home runs, the most dingers by any single player during that three-year stretch. Between Martinez's down 2020 and age (he'll turn 35 during the 2022 season), one can't help but wonder if his best days are behind him. On the bright side, he hasn't experienced the decline in contact skills we typically associated with age-related decline. His 23.7% strikeout rate, 14.5% SwStr rate, and 73% contact rate in 2021 were in line with his career norms. The quality of contact is just as good too, with a 92.5 MPH average exit velocity and 49.4% hard hit rate last year, both putting him in the top 10% of major league hitters. He also maintained a 23.8% line drive rate, helping contribute to a healthy .340 BABIP and a .288 xBA. While no one should expect a return to his late 2010s production, Martinez profiles as a reliable four-category contributor who can be had around pick 90 (per NFBC ADP in Dec. 2021). His 38 games played in the outfield last season should give him outfield eligibility in just about every format, the added flexibility a nice little cherry on top of a safe slugger sundae. Altogether, 27-35 home runs, a .270-.290 BA range, and 90-100 RBI are a near certainty should Martinez stay healthy and hit cleanup all year for a loaded Boston lineup.