December 12, 2022

It was a tale of two halves for Cincinnati Reds rookie starter Hunter Greene. Through his first 18 starts, his strikeout rate sat at 28.8% but was paired with a 10.2% walk rate and 2.29 HR/9, leading to an inflated 5.78 ERA. Greene turned things around during his final six starts, producing a 1.02 ERA after posting an unbelievable 36.7% strikeout rate, dropping his walk rate to 5.8%, and allowing just one home run. By the end, he accumulated five wins, a 4.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a 30.9% strikeout rate across 125.2 IP. Batters posted just a .292 xSLG and a .202 xBA off of Greene in the second half, helped by a 26.7% flyball rate that was nowhere close to his season rate of 36.2%. Further, batters swung and missed at 18.6% of his offerings after the break. It was possible with virtually a two-pitch arsenal. Greene's flamethrower-like fastball averaged 98.9 MPH and had a spin rate in the 81st percentile, and his slider got batters to whiff 38% of the time and produced a batting average against of .170. Fantasy managers might still be scared that the 23-year-old plays his home games at Great American Ballpark. However, Greene was a ground ball pitcher in the minors, so the drastic change in flyball rate is probably more legitimate than a fluke. Also, a 1.72 HR/9 is bloated even for a Reds pitcher and will deflate in 2023. The former second-overall pick proved he can post respectable rate stats while contributing huge punch out numbers. Greene can give a ton of value and upside at his ADP of 120, especially considering he has arguably more potential than pitchers such as Logan Gilbert (115 ADP) and Kyle Wright (113 ADP), who are going before him in drafts.--Spencer Seguin