January 20, 2020

German Marquez saw his strikeout rate take a dip last season and his fantasy output suffered mightily as a result. The 24-year-old went 12-5 with a 4.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 175/35 K/BB rate over 174 innings pitched in 2019. His strikeout rate dropped to 24.3% after posting a 28.2% strikeout rate in what was an impressive 2018 campaign. He struggled in the fantasy goldmine that is Coors Field, tallying a rough 6.26 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in his home park. His 67.1% strand rate was the lowest of his career, he gave up 29 homers (1.5 HR/9), and his 43.1% hard-hit rate was downright awful. Digging deeper, his slider completely lost its effectiveness from 2018 to 2019. Hitters mashed it to a tune of a .295 average, .583 slugging percentage, and 11 homers in 2019 (.162 AVG, .270 SLG, two HR in 2018). The vertical drop and horizontal break on the pitch decreased considerably from year-to-year, and the same thing happened with his curveball. On the plus side, Marquez's 95.5 MPH average fastball velocity ranked ninth among pitchers with at least 2,000 pitches and his 12.5% swinging strike rate was encouraging. His 4.06 FIP, 3.54 xFIP, and 3.85 SIERA all suggest that he had a better season than his final ERA shows. He is groundball-heavy (2.08 GB/FB rate), but his continued penchant for allowing the long ball doesn't play well when he pitches at the top park for home run production. Marquez has an ADP of 174.25, which seems a bit steep with the risks involved with his selection. Target his strikeout upside a round or two later.--Kyle Ringstad - RotoBaller