RADIO
Framber Valdez 2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlook: More Groundballs Could Mean Return To Cy Young Form
11 months agoHouston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez makes his living getting hitters to swing into ground balls. He did that again in 2023 (only San Francisco Giants right-hander Logan Webb had a higher groundball rate than Valdez's 54.2%), but that was a 12-percentage point drop from his 66% in 2022. Fewer ground balls meant more fly balls and home runs. His flyball rate jumped to 25%, accompanying a 37.4% hard-hit rate that was seven percentage points higher than in 2022. What Valdez will be looking to do in 2024 is return to the 100th percentile, elite levels of inducing grounders. In 2022, Valdez was 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA and was top five in Cy Young voting. Despite how he regressed, Valdez did have a career-high 200 strikeouts last season and struck out more than a batter per inning. If he can put that strikeout rate with the 2022 ground ball rate, this could be a Cy Young winner, considering the strong offense he has at his back. Valdez is currently the 20th pitcher off the board in drafts, but give me his track record over more inconsistent pitchers like Freddy Peralta and Tarik Skubal. ATC projects Valdez with a 3.46 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a 9.09 K:9 across 198 innings in 2024, making him a solid pick at his current NFBC ADP of 62.
