December 18, 2020

First baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith broke out in 2020 by posting a .316/.377/.616 line, 10 home runs, 42 RBI, a 0.993 OPS, and a 1.7 WAR. He finished tied for second in the National League with 32 extra-base hits and second overall in the majors with 21 doubles. In addition, his .616 slugging percentage was fourth best in the National League. Smith's season was even more impressive considering the Mets utilized him in a part-time role for the first two weeks of the short season. His breakout was supported by metrics that included a 46.7% overall hard-hit rate, a 13.3% overall barrel rate, a 94.9 mph exit velocity on FB/LD, and an elite .304 xBA and .568 xSLG. In addition, the percentage of 100 mph fly balls Smith hit increased by 9.2% in 2020 and the average exit velocity on his top-5% hardest-hit balls in the air was 107.7 mph. These metrics all suggest Smith's increased contact and power was legitimate. The main question for Smith in 2021 will be playing time. If the NL implements the designated hitter, Smith should be locked in as a lineup regular for the Mets, either in left field, first base (when Pete Alonso is DH) or at DH. If, however, the NL opts out of the universal DH, Smith's playing time could be impacted. He would still likely start most days in left field but could find himself out of or removed from the lineup more frequently for defensive purposes. As a regular, Smith can potentially return 30-plus HR, and 80-90 RBI (with some slight regression in batting average) over the course of a full 162-game season for those drafting him around pick 91.--Nick Ritrivi - RotoBaller