January 27, 2019

In 2017, Domingo Santana was one of the biggest fantasy surprises. In 151 games he posted a line of .278/30/88/85/15, which was good enough to be a top-50 player. Heading into 2018, however, one of the major fantasy debates was whether Santana could keep up that level of production given his .363 BABIP and 30.9% HR/FB rate. While these were both major outliers, I believed that his history of high BABIPs would allow him to sustain a high BABIP in 2018. Further, while the HR/FB rate was not sustainable, he likely would have an above-average rate and could significantly improve his number of fly balls; in 2017, his FB rate was only 27.7%. Thus, if he hit more flyballs he could sustain the homers, even if the flyballs left the park at a lower rate. Unfortunately for Santana fantasy owners, the Brewers had a surplus of outfielders after acquiring Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, and Santana’s poor defense made him the odd man out. He struggled mightily, with a worse walk rate, higher strikeout rate, and he totally forgot how to hit lefties who he mashed in 2017. In 2019 though, Santana is largely the same player he was, but with a fresh perspective in Seattle. Santana’s range of outcomes is wide, but it includes the possibility of hitting .270 with nearly 30 homers and swiping double-digit bases. Even though Santana could be waiver wire fodder by the end of April, our rankers have him 272 overall, which is 100 spots better than his ADP. Considering Santana's upside, there is a case to be made to select him even higher than 270.--Jeff Kahntroff - RotoBaller