March 19, 2021

After missing the entire 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery, Dane Dunning showcased some real talent over seven starts at the Major League level in 2020. The right-hander posted a 3.97 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 35:13 K:BB through 34 innings. Overall, it was an impressive debut, but one not without its struggles. Dunning's last two starts of the year were terrible and he was really a boom or bust starter during the year. In four of his seven starts, he gave up 14 runs in 16 innings, which amounts to a 7.88 ERA. Additionally, his 9.26 K/9, 11.4% SwStr%, and 15.5% K-BB% are all below his minor league levels, which may indicate that he will have trouble putting major leaguers away. That could be attributed to his pitch mix since Dunning is primarily a sinkerball, throwing his sinker 39.4% of the time. Considering it only had a 15.3% Whiff% and a 19.2% PutAway%, it's clearly not a strikeout pitch. It also produced a .285 xBA as opposed to the .173 batting average against, which indicates he also got lucky with the pitch. The good news is that Dunning has four quality offerings with his fastball, slider, and changeup all garnering a 30% whiff rate or higher. His fastball also had an xBA of .230 as opposed to the .364 batting average against it recorded, so there is room for improvement there. Dunning should also see an improvement in his home park now that he will be pitching for the Rangers under Globe Life's retractable roof. The stadium played middle of the road for runs but was dead last in park factor rankings for HRs in the short season. As a groundball pitcher in that park, Dunning should benefit, but I expect him to settle in as a low-to-mid 4.00 ERA pitcher with a K/9 just under 9.00, provided he utilizes his other pitches more than he did in 2020. That's a profile that I'd take in the late 200s which is where is ADP currently sits.--Eric Samulski