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D.J. Moore 2019 Player Outlook: Overdrafted and Unreliable Target Share
Moore has been a volatile player in many drafts, but there seems to always be a guy willing to bet on his rising production and draft him in the 5th or 6th round. He's currently being draft at a 6.4 ADP, over guys like Alshon Jeffery and Jarvis Landry. He certainly has the upside to turn into a favorite target of Newton and a target hog, but I see more questions than answers. Christian McCaffrey took 22.5% of the share through the air, so he’s the number 1 target no matter how you slice it. Not Moore. We also have Greg Olsen returning, who we know Newton loves to lean on in the red-zone. Newton targeted D.J. Moore just 15.1% of the time as WR1 last year, ranking 31st in football ahead of just the 49ers. He will see the best CB on every team and Newton isn’t the type of QB that challenges on the outside too often. He’s much happier checking down and looking for Olsen/Samuel down the middle. Best-case scenario, Cam Newton stays healthy and Moore becomes a target-hog. The most likely scenario is he slightly progresses, but is still held back by the natural flow of this team. I’d much rather take Curtis Samuel a few rounds later, who's getting a ton of praise from coaches and will see the weaker of two opposing CB's.
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