February 28, 2020

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Cole Hamels had a solid 2019 season, posting a 3.81 ERA over 27 starts. He again increased the usage of his four-seam fastball last year, continuing a somewhat worrying trend for a 36-year-old pitcher. Injuries may have affected Hamels’ velocity, but it doesn't bode well that his max fastball velocity fell by nearly two MPH, especially considering he relies heavily on his fastball and changeup. He threw these pitches a combined 56% of the time last year. Additionally, Hamels’ fairly low 41.6% zone rate and pedestrian 30-ish% chase rate will likely lead to a higher than average walk rate while keeping his strikeout rate between 20% and 25%. Moving from the weak-hitting NL Central to the NL East likely won’t help Hamles in 2020 either. Still, Hamels’ changeup continues to be filthy with a 44% whiffs/swing rate last year, and his curveball (34.69% whiffs/swing) looks like a solid weapon as well. Thanks to his strong secondary pitches, Hamels should be expected to post an ERA around 4.00 while pitching about 150 innings. With that in mind, Hamels’ current ADP around 250 looks mostly reasonable but a little high. Fantasy owners looking for a safe pick in the same range would probably be better off with a pitcher like Dallas Keuchel; those looking for some upside will be interested in Brendan McKay.--Sam Chinitz