December 31, 2022

Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton offered mixed results during the 2022 season. He played in just 92 games and hit .224, but he went deep 28 times, scored 61 runs, and drove in 51. Despite Buxton's elite speed (92nd-percentile sprint speed), he only stole six bases and now only has 17 steals over his last 192 games. His power is top-tier, as he's posted a 16.4% and 17.9% barrel rate the previous two seasons, respectively and owns a .576 slugging percentage across his last three campaigns. Buxton's .224 average is concerning, though, and stems from an inflated strikeout rate. The 29-year-old went down on strikes 30.4% of the time and swung at just 66.2% of pitches in the zone, his lowest total in five seasons. When Buxton did swing, he wasn't successful, whiffing at pitches at a 34.1% rate. His .244 BABIP played a part, but considering his bloated 10.8% career pop-up rate and 27.7% career fly ball rate, he'll need to fix his strikeout issues if he wants to hit above .250. Even if Buxton bounces back in some areas, fantasy managers should have no confidence that he'll play enough. The two-time MVP finisher's 92 contests from this year were his most since 2017, when he played in 140 games, representing his only full season in the big leagues. Drafting Buxton at his ADP of 111 could be rewarding, but the risk is too high for such a fragile player.--Spencer Seguin