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Buster Posey 2019 Outlook: Consistent Performer At Catcher, If Healthy
Prior to an injury-shortened 2018, Buster Posey had been a steady producer with an above-average BA and double-digit HR. Because he hits in the middle of the Giants’ order, he also has historically produced solid R and RBI totals for a catcher. That of course changed in 2018 when a hip injury sapped him of power and prematurely ended his season. The good news is that Posey’s 10% BB% and 12% K% remained exceptional in 2018. So did his BABIP (.316), which is quite good for a slower right-handed hitter. As to whether the HR will return, it seems likely if he fully recovers from the hip injury. In the first half of 2018, he hit five homers in 299 PA off of a solid FB% and HR/FB rates (33% and 6%, respectively). In the second half, both fell and he did not hit a single HR. If healthy, his production should return to his pre-injury levels. Assuming a full recovery, he should return to being one of the better catchers in MLB and return provide a very good return on his expected Top 150ish ADP. He presents a buy-low opportunity for those who have confidence in his recovery. Given his age (31), he is more attractive in redraft leagues than dynasty leagues.
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